According to Moore’s law, computer-processing power doubles every eighteen months. Using Moore’s law and simple mathematics suggest that in ten years, the processing power of our personal computers will be over a hundred times greater than the computers we currently are using. Military and consumer products using top-of-the-line computers running state-of-the-art AI software will likely exceed our desktop computer performance by factors of ten. In effect, artificial intelligence in top-of-the-line computers running state-of-the-art AI software will eventually be equivalent to and may actually exceed human intelligence.

Given the above, let us ask, “What should we expect from AI technology in ten years?” Here are some examples:

·       In military systems, expect autonomous weapons, including fighter drones, robotic Navy vessels, and robotic tanks.

·       In consumer products, expect personal computers that become digital assistants and even digital friends. Expect to be able to add “driverless” as an option to the car you buy. Expect productivity to increase by factors of ten in every human endeavor, as strong AI shoulders the “heavy lifting.”

·       In medical technology, expect surgical systems, like the da Vinci Surgical System, robotic platforms designed to expand the surgeon’s capabilities and offer a state-of-the-art minimally invasive option for major surgery, to become completely autonomous. Also, expect serious, if not life-threatening, technical issues as the new surgical systems are introduced, similar to the legal issues that plagued the da Vinci Surgical System, from 2012 through 2014. Expect prosthetic limbs to be directly connected to your brain via your nervous system and perform as well as the organic limb it replaced. Expect new pharmaceutical products that cure (not just treat) cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. Expect human life expectancy to increase by decades. Expect to see brain implants (i.e., technology that is implanted into the brain) become common, such as brain implants to rehabilitate stroke victims, by bypassing the damaged area of the brain.

·       On the world stage, expect cybercrime and cyber terrorism to become the number one issue that technologically advanced countries like the United States will have to fight. Expect significant changes in employment. When robots, embedded with strong AI computers can do the work currently performed by humans, it is not clear what type of work humans will do. Expect leisure to increase dramatically. Expect unemployment issues.       

The above examples are just the tip of a mile-long spear and highly likely to become realities. Most of what I cited is already off the drawing boards and being tested. AI is dramatically changing our lives already, and I project it will approach human intelligence in the next ten years. This is arguably optimistic. However, the majority of researchers project AI will be equivalent to human intelligence by mid-2021. Therefore, expect AI to be equivalent to human intelligence between 2030-2050.