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artificial intelligence

Artificial Intelligence Threatens Human Extinction

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While researching my new book, War At The Speed Of Light, I surfaced some important questions regarding the threat artificial intelligence poses to humanity. For example, Will your grandchildren face extinction? Even worse, will they become robotic slaves to a supercomputer?

Humanity is facing its greatest challenge, artificial intelligence (AI). Recent experiments suggest that even primitive artificially intelligent machines can learn deceit, greed, and self-preservation without being programmed to do so. There is alarming evidence that artificial intelligence, without legislation to police its development, will displace humans as the dominant species by the end of the twenty-first century.

There is no doubt that AI is the new scientific frontier, and it is making its way into many aspects of our lives. Our world includes “smart” machines with varying degrees of AI, including touch-screen computers, smartphones, self-parking cars, smart bombs, heart pacemakers, and brain implants to treat Parkinson’s disease. In essence, AI is changing the cultural landscape, and we are embracing it at an unprecedented rate. Currently, humanity is largely unaware of the potential dangers that strong artificially intelligent machines pose. In this context, the word “strong” signifies AI greater than human intelligence.

Most of humanity perceives only the positive aspects of AI technology. This includes robotic factories, like Tesla Motors, which manufactures electric cars that are ecofriendly, and the da Vinci Surgical System, a robotic platform designed to expand the surgeon’s capabilities and offer a state-of-the-art minimally invasive option for major surgery. These are only two of many examples of how AI is positively affecting our lives. However, there is a dark side. For example, Gartner Inc., a technology research group, forecasts robots and drones will replace a third of all workers by 2025. Could AI create an unemployment crisis?  As AI permeates the medical field, the average human life span will increase. Eventually, strong artificially intelligent humans (SAHs), with AI brain implants to enhance their intelligence and cybernetic organs, will become immortal. Will this exacerbate the worldwide population crisis already surfaced as a concern by the United Nations? By 2045, some AI futurists predict that a single strong artificially intelligent machine (SAM) will exceed the cognitive intelligence of the entire human race. How will SAMs view us? Objectively, humanity is an unpredictable species. We engage in wars, develop weapons capable of destroying the world and maliciously release computer viruses. Will SAMs view us as a threat? Will we maintain control of strong AI, or will we fall victim to our own invention?

I recognize that this post raises more questions than answers. However, I thought it important to share these questions with you. In my new book, War At The Speed Of Light, I devote an entire chapter to autonomous directed energy weapons. I surface these questions, Will autonomous weapons replace human judgment and result in unintended devastating conflicts? Will they ignite World War III? I also provide recommendations to avoid these unintended conflicts. For more insight, browse the book on Amazon

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An Extract From the Intro of War At The Speed Of Light

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The pace of warfare is accelerating. In fact, according to the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization, “So fast will be this process [command and control decision-making], especially if coupled to automatic decisions to launch artificially intelligent autonomous weapons systems capable of lethal outcomes, that a new term has been coined specifically to embrace the speed at which war will be waged: hyperwar.”

The term “hyperwar” adequately describes the quickening pace of warfare resulting from the inclusion of AI into the command, control, decision-making, and weapons of war. However, to my mind, it fails to capture the speed of conflict associated with directed energy weapons. To be all-inclusive, I would like to suggest the term “c-war.” In Einstein’s famous mass-energy equivalent equation, E = mc2, the letter “c” is used to denote the speed of light in a vacuum. [For completeness, E means energy and m mass.] Surprisingly, the speed of light in the Earth’s atmosphere is almost equal to its velocity in a vacuum. On this basis, I believe c-war more fully captures the new pace of warfare.

Unfortunately, c-war, war at the speed of light, may remove human judgment from the realm of war altogether, which could have catastrophic ramifications. If you think this is farfetched, consider this Cold War account, where new technology almost plunged the world into nuclear war. This historical account is from RAND Corporation, a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis:

Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov settled into the commander’s chair in a secret bunker outside Moscow. His job that night was simple: Monitor the computers that were sifting through satellite data, watching the United States for any sign of a missile launch. It was just after midnight, Sept. 26, 1983.

A siren clanged off the bunker walls. A single word flashed on the screen in front of him.

“Launch.”

Petrov’s computer screen now showed five missiles rocketing toward the Soviet Union. Sirens wailed. Petrov held the phone to the duty officer in one hand, an intercom to the computer room in the other. The technicians there were telling him they could not find the missiles on their radar screens or telescopes.

It didn’t make any sense. Why would the United States start a nuclear war with only five missiles? Petrov raised the phone and said again:

“False alarm.”

For a few terrifying moments, Stanislav Petrov stood at the precipice of nuclear war. By mid-1983, the Soviet Union was convinced that the United States was preparing a nuclear attack. The computer system flashing red in front of him was its insurance policy, an effort to make sure that if the United States struck, the Soviet Union would have time to strike back.

But on that night, it had misread sunlight glinting off cloud tops.

“False alarm.” The duty officer didn’t ask for an explanation. He relayed Petrov’s message up the chain of command.

The world owes Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov an incalculable debt. His judgment spared the world a nuclear holocaust. Now, ask yourself this simple question: If those systems Petrov monitored were autonomous (i.e., artificially intelligent), would they have initiated World War III? I believe this is a profound question, and that it is possible to make persuasive arguments on either side. However, would you want to leave the fate of the world to an artificially intelligent system?

I have devoted a significant portion of my career to developing AI for military applications. My experience leads me to conclude today’s technology cannot replicate human judgment. Therefore, I think an AI system replacing Petrov may have initiated World War III. I also believe US military planners are acutely aware of this and are taking steps to defend the US against such a mishap. As we discussed earlier, their actions could disrupt the doctrine of MAD, which prevents nuclear war via the threat of mutually assured destruction. Some term this “the balance of terror.” If any country were able to disrupt the doctrine of MAD, they would tilt the balance of terror.

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Lasers Will Dominate The Battlefield By 2030

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Every branch of the US military will deploy lasers. In fact, the US Army is building the world’s most powerful laser weapon (Read more about it here). Given the pace that the US military is developing and deploying laser weapons, I predict they will dominate the battlefield by 2030. You can read more about it in my new book, War At The Speed Of Light.