Category Archives: War

A large fire bomb is coming out of the ground.

What Would Happen If The US And Russia Engaged In A Full-Scale Nuclear War?

Categories, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , ,

This is an excerpt from my new book, War at the Speed of Light. Enjoy!

According to the US Congress’ Office of Technology (OTA) study in 1979, immediate deaths in the United States could range from 70 million to 160 million (35 to 80 percent of the population). Russian fatalities would be approximately 20 to 40 percent lower. Many more in both countries would die from injuries, cancer-related deaths, and psychological trauma. If we update these numbers to reflect the populations as of 2018 and the urbanization of the US, the death toll would even be higher. For example, in 1979, the US had a population of about 225 million, in 2018, 327 million. Much of the growth occurred in urban areas. Today, approximately 80 percent of the US population lives in urban areas. By contrast, Russia’s population has only grown modestly. For example, in 1979, Russia had a population of about 137 million, in 2018, 144 million.

On the surface, even with the increased urbanization of the US, it would appear to suggest that the world and even the combatant nations could survive a full-scale nuclear exchange. However, that is not the case. In addition to the immediate deaths and destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve firestorms, widespread radiation sickness from the bombs and radioactive fallout, the loss of modern technology due to electromagnetic pulses (EMPs), and a nuclear winter resulting in worldwide famine.

Deaths from the nuclear blast, firestorms, and radiation are relatively easy to grasp. Deaths from the effects of an EMP blackout and a nuclear winter are more challenging to understand. Therefore, let us discuss each.

We will start by understanding the deaths associated with an EMP blackout. A nuclear detonation causes an electromagnetic pulse, which produces rapidly varying electric and magnetic fields. Those fields cause electrical and electronic systems to experience damaging current and voltage surges resulting in a blackout. [Note: In physics, a current generates a magnetic field, and a magnetic field generates a current.] How severe would an EMP blackout be? A 2017 report, written by EMP expert Peter Vincent Pry, concludes in a widespread EMP attack, “Nine of 10 Americans are dead from starvation, disease, and societal collapse.”

Reading the last line is chilling. Even if portions of the US are not affected by the blast, radiation, and firestorms, “The United States of America ceases to exist” due to the effects of EMPs causing the death of ninety percent of the US residents. According to Pry, Russia calls EMP a “revolution in military affairs.”

Let us discuss nuclear winter and its effects. If you are fortunate enough to survive the nuclear blast, radiation, fallout, and EMP blackout, you are still likely to perish in the coming years. Alan Robock and Owen Brian Toon, in their paper, “Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war,” hypothesized that a thermonuclear war could result in a nuclear winter that would be the end of modern civilization on Earth. The nuclear winter would result from the smoke and soot arising from burning wood, plastics, and petroleum fuels in nuclear-devastated cities. A recent study reported this would result in cooling by about 54–68 degrees Fahrenheit in the core farming regions of the US, Europe, Russia, and China. The cooling would reduce crop yields and lead to a “nuclear famine,” characterized by mass starvation due to disrupted agricultural production and distribution. The simple takeaway message is that modern civilization on Earth would cease to exist, and the remnants of humanity would find themselves struggling to survive.

Conclusion: There would be no winners in a full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia.

low frequency microwaves

New Book, War At The Speed Of Light, Explains Mysterious Directed-Energy Attacks on US Government and Military Personnel

Categories, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , , ,

This press release went live May 4, 2021, 8:00 PM EST, Minneapolis, Mn – May 4, 2021

According to CNN (Jeremy Herb, April 30, 2021), “The leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned Friday [4/30/21] that mysterious invisible attacks that have caused debilitating symptoms appear to be on the rise against US personnel.” Politico reported (Lara Seligman, Andrew Desiderio, and Betsy Woodruff Swan, April 22, 2021), “Two Defense Department officials briefed members of the House Armed Service Committee about the phenomenon in a classified setting on Wednesday [4/28/21].”

These directed energy attacks are known in the defense industry as low-frequency microwaves, initially used by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. As defense technology expert Louis Del Monte wrote in his new book, War at the Speed of Light (Potomac Books, March 2021), “Microwave weapons may sound like something new. They are not. During the Cold War, from 1953–1976, the US feared that the Soviets were attempting to use microwave radiation covertly as a means of mind control. US intelligence officials surfaced this concern in 1953 when they detected a low-frequency microwave signal at the US Moscow embassy, termed the ‘Moscow Signal.’”

According to Del Monte, “It’s well known that animals and humans subjected to low-level microwaves suffer significant impairment in cognitive function and brain damage. That’s the goal of these recent directed energy attacks. It’s intended to reduce the ability of US government and military personnel to function.”

Surprisingly, few analysts connect the current directed energy attacks to those by the Soviet Union during the Cold War on the US embassy in Moscow. Known as the Moscow Signal, it caused embassy personnel to experience numerous ill effects, including disorientation, headaches, dizziness, and hearing loss. In 2017, the US embassy in Havana experienced a similar attack with almost identical casualties, as reported by the New York Times (Gardiner Harris, Julie Hirschfeld Davis, and Ernesto Londoño, October 3, 2017). Although unable to determine the perpetrator, the US held the Cuban government responsible for what was termed the “Havana syndrome” and expelled twenty-seven Cuban diplomats.

Unfortunately, the directed energy attacks are becoming more frequent and bolder. For example, a potential incident near the White House involving a National Security Council staffer occurred in November 2020, one of several on US soil.

War At The Speed Of Light devotes an entire chapter to microwave weapons, including the type of directed energy attacks currently being perpetrated against the US government and military personnel. It presents US government studies of these attacks dating back to the 1953 “Moscow Signal” and the 2017 “Havana syndrome.”

War At The Speed Of Light is available at bookstores, from Potomac Books, and on Amazon.

Louis A. Del Monte is available for radio, podcast, and television interviews and writing op-ed pieces for major media outlets. Feel free to contact him directly by email at ldelmonte@delmonteagency.com or phone at 952-261-4532.

To request a book for review, contact Louis Del Monte by email.

About Louis A. Del Monte

Louis A. Del Monte is an award-winning physicist, inventor, futurist, featured speaker, and CEO of Del Monte and Associates, Inc. He has authored a formidable body of work, including War At The Speed Of Light (2021), Genius Weapons (2018), Nanoweapons (2016), and Amazon charts #1 bestseller in the artificial intelligence category, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution (2014). Major magazines like the Business Insider, The Huffington Post, The Atlantic, American Security Today, Inc., CNBC, and the New York Post have featured his articles or quoted his views on artificial intelligence and military technology.

human extinction

Will Humanity Survive the 21st Century?

Artificial Intelligence, Categories, nanotechnology, Nanoweapons, Threats to Humankind, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , , , ,

In my last post, I stated, “In making the above predictions [about the singularity], I made one critical assumption. I assumed that humankind would continue the “status quo.” I am ruling out world-altering events, such as large asteroids striking Earth, leading to human extinction, or a nuclear exchange that renders civilization impossible. Is assuming the “status quo” reasonable? We’ll discuss that in the next post.

Let’s now discuss if humanity will survive the 21st century.

The typical events that most people consider as causing humanity’s extinction, such as a large asteroid impact or a volcanic eruption of sufficient magnitude to cause catastrophic climate change, actually have a relatively low probability of occurring, in the order of 1 in 50,000 or less, according to numerous estimates found via a simple Google search. In 2008, experts surveyed at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford suggested a 19% chance of human extinction over the next century, citing the top five most probable to cause human extinction by 2100 as:

  1. Molecular nanotechnology weapons – 5% probability
  2. Super-intelligent AI – 5% probability
  3. Wars – 4% probability
  4. Engineered pandemic – 2% probability
  5. Nuclear war – 1% probability

All other existential events were below 1%. Again, doing a simple Google search may provide different results by different “experts.” If we take the above survey at face value, it would suggest that the risk of an existential event increases with time. This has led me to the conclusion that human survival over the next 30 years is highly probable.

It is interesting to note in the 2008 Global Catastrophic Risk Conference survey, super-intelligent AI equates with molecular nanotechnology weapons for number one. In my view, molecular nanotechnology weapons and super-intelligent AI are two sides of the same coin. In fact, I judge that super-intelligent AI will be instrumental in developing molecular nanotechnology weapons. I also predict that humanity, in some form, will survive until the year 2100. However, I predict that will include both humans with strong artificially intelligent brain implants and organic humans (i.e., no brain implants to enhance their intelligence). However, each may have some artificially intelligent body parts.

Let me summarize. Based on the above information, it is reasonable to judge humanity will survive through the 21st century.

A colorful star with many lines coming out of it.

China’s Laser Weapons

Categories, War, War At The Speed Of Light, ,

This is an edited excerpt from my new book, War At The Speed Of Light.

Significant evidence indicates that China is developing laser weapons. Jane’s 360 reported, “Chinese media have reported that a prototype laser weapon is being tested by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). An article published on 5 April [2019] on the Sina news website contains several screengrabs taken from footage broadcast by China Central Television (CCTV) showing a trainable optical device mounted on a mobile chassis with a large main lens.”

China’s laser weapon appeared in a promotional video broadcast by state-run channel CCTV. The transmission shows it in a ground-based, vehicle-mounted application. According to Sina.com, China intends both land and sea deployment, including aboard its destroyers, as an alternative to their short-range surface-to-air missile. This last statement implies it has a range of about three miles. Beyond talking about potential applications, China provides no evidence of the laser’s capabilities.

China is using espionage to obtain any information it can on the US Navy’s developments. The Maritime Executive, a source for breaking maritime and marine news, reported, “[The] U.S. Navy has uncovered evidence of widespread and persistent hacking by Chinese actors targeting naval technology. According to a recent internal review ordered by Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, the service’s broader R&D ecosystem is “under cyber siege,” primarily by Chinese hacking teams.”

My view is that China is doing all within its capability to develop laser weapons. Given their tenacity to hack their way into the US’ most crucial intelligence information, combined with their government’s funding of advanced weapons, it is only a matter of time before they weaponize lasers. Indeed, according to ZeeNews, “The Indian and US satellites are vulnerable to China’s ground-based lasers as according to some analysts China has acquired the full capability to destroy the enemy’s satellite sensors through its lasers. China can cause great damage to Indian and US satellites during wartime.” If this last statement is true, it means China has become a laser power.

c-war

The Pace Of Warfare Is Increasing From Hyperwar To C-War

Categories, Technology, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , ,

In my latest book, War At The Speed Of Light, I coined a new term, “c-war.” This is an excerpt from the book’s introduction and explains the rationale behind this term.

The pace of warfare is accelerating. In fact, according to the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization, “So fast will be this process [command and control decision-making], especially if coupled to automatic decisions to launch artificially intelligent autonomous weapons systems capable of lethal outcomes, that a new term has been coined specifically to embrace the speed at which war will be waged: hyperwar.”

The term “hyperwar” adequately describes the quickening pace of warfare resulting from the inclusion of AI into the command, control, decision-making, and weapons of war. However, to my mind, it fails to capture the speed of conflict associated with directed energy weapons. To be all-inclusive, I would like to suggest the term “c-war.” In Einstein’s famous mass-energy equivalent equation, E = mc2, the letter “c” is used to denote the speed of light in a vacuum. [For completeness, E means energy and m mass.] Surprisingly, the speed of light in the Earth’s atmosphere is almost equal to its velocity in a vacuum. On this basis, I believe c-war more fully captures the new pace of warfare associated with directed energy weapons.

A red light is shining on the dark background.

Here’s Why The US Is Pursuing Directed Energy Weapons

Categories, Technology, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , , ,

This is an excerpt from the introduction of my new book, War At The Speed Of Light.

As the US’ most capable potential adversaries deploy missile defenses that could threaten its advanced weapons systems, such as Ford-class aircraft carriers and B-2 stealth bombers, the US is developing countermeasures. Current countermeasures rely on anti-ballistic missile defense systems, such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). These countermeasures primarily use missiles to destroy missiles, which is akin to using bullets to stop bullets.

Unfortunately, these countermeasures do not cover the complete threat spectrum. For example, THAAD is only effective against short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, not against intercontinental ballistic missiles. Also, the countermeasures can be an expensive deterrent. For example, in 2017, a US ally used a Patriot missile, priced at about three million dollars, to shoot down a small enemy quadcopter drone, available on Amazon for about two hundred dollars. Of course, the quadcopter drone had no chance against the Patriot, a radar-targeted missile more commonly used to shoot down enemy aircraft and ballistic missiles. The military terms this “overkill.” In theory, the enemy could order more of the two hundred dollar quadcopter drones from Amazon or eBay until they exhaust the US and its allies’ stock of Patriot missiles.

Given the expense of using missiles to counter enemy missiles and drones, along with their ineffectiveness across the entire threat spectrum, the US military is turning to laser and other directed energy weapons. While the price tag for hypersonic missiles continues to soar, approaching six hundred million per missile, the cost per laser pulse continues to drop, approaching about one dollar per shot. In addition, the US military feels that directed energy weapons will be effective against the entire threat spectrum, from intercontinental ballistic missiles to drone swarms.

A colorful star with many lines coming out of it.

Laser Weapons Project Devastation At The Speed Of Light

Categories, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , ,

This is an excerpt from the introduction of my new book, War At The Speed Of Light:

Potential US adversaries, like China and Russia, are developing and deploying supersonic (i.e., faster than the speed of sound) and hypersonic missiles (i.e., five or more times faster than the speed of sound) as a means to destroy US aircraft, drones, missiles, aircraft carriers, and space-based assets, such as GPS and communication satellites. To counter this threat, the United States is developing and deploying laser weapons. However, the development of laser weapons is in its infancy. For example, in December 2014, the United States Navy installed the first-ever laser weapon on the USS Ponce. In field-testing, the United States Navy reported that the laser system worked perfectly against low-end asymmetric threats, such as small unmanned aerial vehicles. Following the field tests, the Navy authorized the commander of the Ponce to use the system as a defensive weapon. However, this is just the beginning. The US Navy’s strategy is to develop higher energy laser systems with the capability to destroy an adversary’s “carrier killer” missiles, as well as other asymmetric threats such as hypersonic missiles. In January 2018, the Navy contracted Lockheed Martin to deliver two HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance) systems by 2021. The Navy intends to deploy one on the USS Preble Arleigh Burke destroyer. The other will be land-based at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico for testing. In the 2020s, the US military plans to usher in the widespread use of laser weapons on land, sea, air, and space. It is reasonable to assume that these new lasers will continue the US military thrust to develop and deploy laser weapon systems capable of destroying an adversary’s supersonic, hypersonic, and intercontinental ballistic missiles, drone swarms, and space assets.

In addition to lasers, the US military is pursuing a full spectrum of directed energy weapons, including microwave, EMP, and cyberspace weapons.

 

Cyberspace

Cyberspace – The New Battlefield

Categories, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , ,

This is an excerpt from the introduction of my new book, War At The Speed Of Light.

In June 2016, NATO declared cyberspace (computer networks and the Internet) as an “operational domain,” a battlefield as real as air, sea, land, and space. This declaration recognizes cyber warfare and electronic warfare as two crucial new elements of warfare.

To succeed in this new battlespace, the US military must be equipped with capabilities to defend or attack information networks in cyberspace (i.e., cyber warfare) and to control access to the electromagnetic spectrum (i.e., electronic warfare). As a result, the US military is integrating cyber and electronic warfare to achieve an effective defense and offense in this new battlespace.

Cyberwarfare typically involves operations disrupting, exploiting, or crippling adversaries through information systems and the Internet via the use of computer code and computer applications. It often includes launching cyber weapons wirelessly. That means transmitting cyber weapons as electromagnetic radiation, similar to radio waves, traveling at the speed of light.

Until a little over a decade back, cyber warfare was the stuff of theoretical scenarios by security professionals. However, it is now apparent that hackers can cause just as much damage as traditional military attacks. We will discuss this at length in the coming chapters.

Electronic warfare is military action involving the use of directed energy to control the electromagnetic spectrum, such as radar, radio transmissions, and laser beams, to deceive or attack an enemy or to protect friendly systems from similar actions. The goal, according to the Department of Defense (DOD), is to use directed energy weapons to disrupt an electromagnetic field, resulting in jamming and deceiving information managed by computerized systems or electronic platforms, such as surveillance or telecommunication satellites. With high power, these weapons can also burn out the electric circuitry of an adversary’s weapon, resulting in the destruction or interference of its function.

human extinction

Will Humanity Survive The 21st Century?

Artificial Intelligence, Categories, nanotechnology, Nanoweapons, Threats to Humankind, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , , , , , ,

Examples of typical events that most people think could cause humanity’s extinction are a large asteroid impact or a volcanic eruption of sufficient magnitude to cause catastrophic climate change. Although possible, these events actually have a relatively low probability of occurring, in the order of one in fifty thousand or less, according to numerous estimates found via a simple Google search.

However, there are other events with higher probabilities that may cause human extinction. In 2008, experts surveyed at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford suggested a 19 percent chance of human extinction over this century, citing the top five most probable to cause human extinction by 2100 as:

  1. Molecular nanotechnology weapons (i.e., nanoweapons): 5 percent probability
  2. Superintelligent AI: 5 percent probability
  3. Wars: 4 percent probability
  4. Engineered pandemic: 2 percent probability
  5. Nuclear war: 1 percent probability

All other existential events were below 1 percent. There is a subtle point the survey does not explicitly express, namely, the risk of human extinction increases with time. You may wonder, Why? To answer this question, consider these examples:

  • Nanoweapons and superintelligence become more capable with the development of each successive generation. In the 2008 Global Catastrophic Risk Conference survey, superintelligent AI equates with molecular nanotechnology weapons as the number one potential cause of human extinction. In my view, molecular nanotechnology weapons and superintelligent AI are two sides of the same coin. In fact, I judge that superintelligent AI will be instrumental in developing molecular nanotechnology weapons.
  • In my new book, War At The Speed Of Light, I devoted a chapter on autonomous directed energy weapons. These are weapons that act on their own to take hostile action, resulting in unintended conflicts. Unfortunately, current autonomous weapons don’t embody human judgment. This being the case, wars, including nuclear wars, become more probable as more autonomous weapons are deployed.
  • Lastly, the world is currently facing a coronavirus pandemic. Although most researchers believe this is a naturally occurring pandemic, it still infected 121,382,067 people and caused 2,683,209 deaths to date on a worldwide basis. This suggests the death rate is a little over 2 percent. However, if the virus was more infectious and more deadly, it could render the Earth a barren wasteland. Unfortunately, that is what an engineered pandemic might do.

To my eye, the top five potential causes surfaced by the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford in 2008 are all possible, and the probabilities associated with them appear realistic. This means that humanity has a 19 percent chance of not surviving the 21st century on our current course.

In the next post, I will suggest measures humanity can take to increase the probability they will survive into the 22nd century.

Laser Weapon

US Military Intends To Use Lasers To Defend Against Hypersonic Glide Missiles

Arms Race, Categories, Technology, War, War At The Speed Of Light, , , , ,

In my new book, War At The Speed Of Light, I discuss why the US military is eager to deploy directed energy weapons, such as lasers. One important reason has to do with hypersonic (i.e., five or more times faster than the speed of sound) glide missiles, which no country currently can defend against. Potential US adversaries, like China and Russia, are developing and deploying hypersonic missiles as a means to destroy US aircraft, drones, missiles, aircraft carriers, and space-based assets, such as GPS and communication satellites. To counter this threat, the United States is developing and deploying laser weapons. However, the development of laser weapons is in its infancy. For example, in December 2014, the United States Navy installed the first-ever 30-kilowatt laser weapon on the USS Ponce. In field-testing, the United States Navy reported that the laser system worked perfectly against low-end asymmetric threats, such as small unmanned aerial vehicles. Following the field tests, the Navy authorized the commander of the Ponce to use the system as a defensive weapon. However, this is just the beginning. The US Navy’s strategy is to develop higher energy laser systems with the capability to destroy an adversary’s “carrier killer” missiles, as well as other asymmetric threats such as hypersonic missiles.

In January 2018, the Navy contracted Lockheed Martin for two HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance), which Lockheed delivered in 2021. These new lasers are capable of a 60-kilowatt laser beam, which is double the energy punch of the laser weapons deployed on the USS Ponce. The Navy intends to deploy one on the USS Dewey Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. The other will be land-based at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico for testing. This is an excerpt from Lockheed Martin’s press release:

MOORESTOWN, N.J., JANUARY 11, 2021 – This year, the U.S. Navy will field the first acquisition program to deploy the High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance, or HELIOS, a laser weapon system with high-energy fiber lasers for permanent fielding by the U.S. Department of Defense. This will be the only deployed laser system integrated into an operational Flight IIA DDG. This follows the Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Navy’s recent demonstration of full laser power in excess of the 60 kW requirement. The scalable laser design architecture spectrally combines multiple kilowatt fiber lasers to attain high beam quality at various power levels.

In the 2020s, the US military plans to usher in the widespread use of laser weapons on land, sea, air, and space. It is reasonable to assume that these new lasers will continue the US military thrust to develop and deploy laser weapon systems capable of destroying an adversary’s hypersonic, intercontinental ballistic missiles, drone swarms, and space assets.