Category Archives: Threats to Humankind
Will Autonomous Weapons Start World War 3?
Headed For A New Ice Age? Latest Data Says Yes!
Will Killer Robots Destroy You?
Stephen Hawking Proposes Nanotechnology Spacecraft to Reach ‘Second Earth’ in 20 years
Renowned physicist Stephen Hawking is proposing a nanotechnology spacecraft that can travel at a fifth of the speed of light. At that speed, it could reach the nearest star in 20 years and send back images of a suspected “Second Earth” within 5 years. That means if we launched it today, we would have our first look at an Earth-like planet within 25 years.
Hawking proposed a nano-spacecraft, termed “Star Chip,” at the Starmus Festival IV: Life And The Universe, Trondheim, Norway, June 18 – 23, 2017. Hawking told attendees that every time intelligent life evolves it annihilates itself with “war, disease and weapons of mass destruction.” He asserted this as the primary reason why advanced civilizations from another part of the Universe are not contacting Earth and the primary reason we need to leave the Earth. His advocates we colonize a “Second Earth.”
Scientific evidence appears to support Hawking’s claim. The SETI Institute has been listening for evidence of extraterrestrial radio signals, a sign of advanced extraterrestrial life, since 1984. To date, their efforts have been futile. SETI claims, rightly, that the universe is vast, and they are listening to only small sectors, which is much like finding a needle in a haystack. Additional evidence that Hawking may be right about the destructive nature of intelligent life comes from experts surveyed at the 2008 Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford, whose poll suggested a 19% chance of human extinction by the end of this century, citing the top four most probable causes:
- Molecular nanotechnology weapons – 5% probability
- Super-intelligent AI – 5% probability
- Wars – 4% probability
- Engineered pandemic – 2% probability
Hawking envisions the nano-spacecraft to be a tiny probe propelled on its journey by a laser beam from Earth, much the same way wind propels sailing vessels. Once it reaches its destination, Hawking asserts, “Once there, the nano craft could image any planets discovered in the system, test for magnetic fields and organic molecules, and send the data back to Earth in another laser beam.”
Would Hawking’s nano-spacecraft work? Based on the research I performed during my career and in preparation for writing my latest book, Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity (Potomac Books, 2017), I judge his concept is feasible. However, it would require significant engineering, as well as funding, to move from Hawking’s concept to a working nano-spacecraft, likely billions of dollars and decades of work. However, in Nanoweapons, I described the latest development of bullets that contain nanoelectronic guidance systems that allow the bullets to guide themselves, possibly to shoot an adversary hiding around a corner. Prototypes already exist.
Hawking’s concept is compelling. Propelling a larger conventional spacecraft using a laser would not attain the near light speed necessary to reach a distant planet. Propelling it with rockets would also fall short. According to Einstein’s theory of relativity, a large conventional spacecraft would require close to infinite energy to approach the speed of light. Almost certainly, Hawking proposed a nano-spacecraft for just that reason. Its mass would be small, perhaps measured in milligrams, similar to the weight of a typical household fly.
Hawking’s concept represents a unique application of nanotechnology that could give humanity its first up-close look at an inhabitable planet. What might we see? Perhaps it already harbors advanced intelligent life that chose not to contact Earth, given our hostile nature toward each other. Perhaps it harbors primitive life similar to the beginning of life on Earth. We have no way of knowing without contact.
You may choose to laugh at Hawking’s proposal. However, Hawking is one of the top scientists on Earth and well aware of advances in any branch of science he speaks about. I judge his concerns are well founded and his nano-spacecraft concept deserves serious consideration.
Are Advancements in Artificial Intelligence Sowing the Seeds of Humanity’s Annihilation?
In the past two decades, we have watched the United States military engage in three wars, two in Iraq and one in Afghanistan, and posture itself as the most technically advanced fighting force on Earth. For example, during this period, we witnessed the deployment of many new weapons, most notably:
- Stealth Aircraft – from the F-117 Nighthawk (1981–2008), dubbed the “bat plane,” to the latest addition, the F-35 Lightning II
- Smart bombs – bombs guided precisely to targets via a laser or geographic coordinates
- The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb – a conventional bomb with a 8-ton warhead capable of delivering a 11-ton TNT equivalent destructive blast, which some analysts attribute to its nano-catalysts, as discussed in my recently publish book, Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity
- Computer Technology/Artificial Intelligence – the inclusion of computers, as well as artificial intelligence (AI), in almost every aspect of warfare and by every branch of the US military
- Cyber Warfare – the United States, like other nations employing professional hackers as “cyber soldiers,” sees cyberspace as a battlefield and established a new cyber strategy in April 2015
The United States, and other nations, uses supercomputers to design advanced weapons, including fledgling autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons. The process is termed “computer aided design” or CAD. In addition, the advanced weapon typically employ a computer to make it artificially intelligent. We term such a weapon as a “smart weapon.” The term “smart” in this context means “artificially intelligent.”
The weapons the United States deploys currently would have been the subject of science fictions just a few decades back. However, the relentless advance of computer technology, as well as artificial intelligence, brought them to fruition. This begs a question, What drives this relentless advance?
Moore’s law describes the driving force behind computer technology and artificial intelligence. In 1975, Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor, observed that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. The semiconductor industry adopted Moore’s law to plan their product offerings. Thus, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy, even to this day. In view of Moore’s law, Intel executive David House predicted that integrated circuit performance would double every 18 months, resulting from the combined effects of increasing the transistor density and decreasing the transistor size. This implies computer power will double every eighteen months, since integrated circuits are the lifeblood of computers. Since computers are a pillar of artificial intelligence (AI), capabilities in AI are also increasing exponentially.
On the surface, this may appear beneficial, advances in weapons increasing our security and computer advances enabling us to address complex problems. However, advances in computer technology are reaching critical milestones. Most researchers in AI expect computers will equate to human intelligence by approximately 2025. Those same researchers predict that computers will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans by 2050, which researchers term the “singularity.”
What will singularity-level computers think about humanity? Wars, nuclear weapons capable of destroying the Earth, and the malicious release of computer viruses, mar our history. Will singularity-level computers, alarmed by this information, seek to rid the Earth of humans? That is one possibility I discuss in my book, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution. By increasing our reliance on computers, in society and warfare, we are increasing their capability to eliminate us.
This frames the issue, namely that singularity-level computers may become adversarial and seek to annihilate humanity. However, being aware of this possibility allows us to guard against it. The most obvious path would be to build-in safeguards, such as “hardwired” circuitry, in addition to directives in software.
Given the deity-like intelligence of singularity computers, the task of controlling them will be difficult. However, if we fail to do so, we put the survival of humanity at risk.
Are Nanoweapons Paving the Road to Human Extinction?
Nanotechnology researchers continue their relentless journey to develop nanobots and they are succeeding. Nanomedicine is using nanobots to cure to cancer. Military nanotechnologies, especially nanobots, will emerge as the defining weapons of the twenty first century.
The United States military already deploys nanoweapons, such as nanotechnology based lasers, toxic nanoparticles, nanoparticle catalysts, and nano electronics. These nanoweapons give the United States significant capabilities in asymmetrical warfare. However, the US military’s greatest quest is the development of nanobots, tiny robots built with nanotechnology.
What is it about nanobots that make them the ideal weapons? Let us address this question by taking several examples. About a third of all US fighter planes today are drones. Today’s drones are approximately one-third the size of a manned fighter jet, like the F-35. However, a new class of drones is in development, bird and even insect size drones. For example, in 2014, the Army Research Laboratory announced the creation of a “fly drone” weighing only a small fraction of a gram. This drone could conceivable fly into an adversary’s command post and provide surveillance or into the adversary’s dining area to deposit a nano poison. An insect fly drone provides the military with both surveillance and assignation capabilities. This gives a completely new meaning to “fly on the wall.”
As electronic processors shrink into the nanoscale, becoming nanoprocessors, about 1/1000 the diameter of a human hair, conceivably they could provide the fly drone with artificial intelligence. In effect, it could autonomously carry out its programmed mission.
You may wonder, How does all of this threaten human extinction? To address this question, imagine a scenario where the US military releases millions of artificially intelligent fly drones within an adversary’s boarders, programmed to target the populace via commonalities in their DNA. If each fly drone had the capability to assassinate a few people, conceivably they could wipe out an entire nation.
Although this may sound like science fiction, the United States is within a decade of having the capability. The US Army is already testing a fly drone. As for poisons, as little as 100 nano grams of botulism H will kill a human. That quantity of poison is too small to see or taste, yet lethal and small enough for a fly drone to carry. In my book, Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat To Humanity, I classify this type of weapon as a strategic nanoweapon. This classification parallels strategic nuclear weapons that have the capability to destroy nations.
While artificially intelligent insect drones are already a scary proposition, the next step in their development is even more frightening, namely self-replicating insect drones, or more generically self- replicating nanobots. Given the exponential advance in nano electronics and artificial intelligence, characterized by Moore’s law, it is likely we will see the emergence of self-replicating nanobots in the 2050s.
Self-replicating nanobots are the ultimate invention. In medicine, they will flow through our blood preventing diseases and curing injuries. In military applications, they will have the capability to completely destroy an adversary, from its populace to its structures. This scenario was depicted in the sci-fi movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still.
Strategic nanoweapons, like their nuclear counterparts, pose a threat to humanity. The major issue is control. Will we be able to deploy strategic nanoweapons and maintain control over them? If, for example, we lost control of self-replicating nanobots, we would face a technological plague, one that we currently have no way of stopping.
In a decade, we will see the emergence of nanobots. In medicine, they will cure cancer. In warfare, they may kill millions. In the 2050s, we will see the emergence of self-replicating nanobots. In medicine, they will offer immortality. In warfare, they will pose a threat to humanity.
The Second Technological Singularity: Self-replicating Nanobots
It is widely accepted that when artificial intelligence exceeds the sum total intelligence of the human race, we will have reached a technological singularity. It qualifies as a technological singularity because it represents the first time a machine is more intelligence that all humanity. In my book, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution, I project this will occur during the 2040s. My projection aligns with the prediction of most researchers in the field.
We will reach a second technological singularity with the development of self-replicating nanobots. This begs a question, What are self-replicating nanobots? Self-replicating nanobots are robots built using nanotechnology that are able to perform programmed functions and reproduce. This raises another question, What is nanotechnology? According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” For comparison, a human hair diameter is 100,000 nm.
The development of self-replicating nanobots qualifies as a technological singularity because it represents the development of the first artificial life forms, having rudimentary intelligence to carry out programmed functions, along with the ability to reproduce. You can think of them as the technological equivalent of bacteria and viruses. Researchers working in the fields of nanotechnology have varied opinions when this will occur. I think the divergence in projecting this singularity comes from looking at it as an isolated occurrence. Many researchers in nanotechnology lack equivalent expertise in artificial intelligence. Having worked in both fields, and authored books in both fields (The Artificial Intelligence Revolution and Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat To Humanity), I assert from experience the second singularity (i.e., the development of self-replicating nanobots) is dependent on the first singularity (i.e., an intelligent machine that exceeds the cognitive intelligence of humanity). Let us discuss why this is the case.
In technologically advanced countries, computers play a role in the design of almost all products, from fighter jets to golf balls. The fabric of society in technologically advanced countries is dependent on computers. When an aeronautical engineer designs an aircraft or a civil engineer designs a bridge, computers are intimately involved. It is fair to assert that without computers, our society would not be viable.
Nanotechnology is also becoming an integral part of technologically advanced societies, from nanotechnology-based cosmetics to nano drugs that hold the promise to cure cancer. Nanotechnology is becoming critical to building the structures of society, making steel and concrete stronger, lighter, and even self-cleaning. The worldwide market for commercial nanotechnology products is a trillion dollars. Even though most people may not be aware of it, they are likely using nanotechnology-based products daily.
Intelligent machines and nanotechnology have a strong symbiotic relationship. Integrated circuits, with nanotechnology features, power modern computers. Modern computers play a critical role in developing integrated circuits. Computer processing power is doubling approximately every eighteen months. This trend, first observed by Intel co-founder Gordon More, is termed Moore’s Law. It has held for over five decades. By contrast, nanotechnology is relatively new, emerging as a science in the late 1980s. Its importance, however, quickly became evident. In 2000, President Clinton established the National Nanotechnology Initiative, a research and development initiative involving the nanotechnology-related activities of 25 Federal agencies. Since its inception, the United States government has allocated over $20,000,000,000 to developing nanotechnology.
This brings us to a critical question, When will self-replicating nanobots be developed? Given the strong symbiotic relationship between computer power and nanotechnology, we may see both technologies progressing faster than their historical trends. My rationale is that an advance in one technology fosters advances in the other. I judge this synergy may accelerate the advancement of both technologies. Further, when intelligent machines exceed the cognitive intelligence of humanity (i.e., the first technological singularity), humanity will have the computing power required to develop self-replicating nanobots (i.e., the second technological singularity). If my judgement is correct, humanity will develop self-replicating nanobots during the 2050s.
With the advent of self-replicating nanobots, we will have the potential to use them medically to treat diseases like cancer at the cellular level. In fact, we are already doing that with medical nanobots today. On May 15, 2015, Pfizer announced it is “partnering” with Dr. Ido Bachelet, manager of Bar-Ilan University’s robot laboratory, on DNA nanobots. Next Big Future reports, “Bachelet has developed a method of producing innovative DNA molecules with characteristics that can be used to ‘program’ them to reach specific locations in the body and carry out pre-programmed operations there in response to stimulation from the body.” In this case, the pre-programming involves detecting cancer cells and delivering an existing cancer drug treatment directly to a cancerous cell, bypassing healthy cells. This is currently going into human trials as I write. Although these are not self-replicating nanobots, it provide a solid conceptual framework to understand how self-replicating nanobot my revolutionize medicine. Unfortunately, there is also a dark side.
Self-replicating nanobots can become a weapon. For example, one adversary could program self-replicating nanobots to target another adversary’s populace. It would be the technological equivalent of biological warfare. In the 2008 film, The Day the Earth Stood Still, the alien robot “GORT” disintegrates into a swarm of self-replicating nanobots shaped like bugs that cover Earth and destroy all humans and artificial structures by seemingly devouring them within seconds. Although this is science fiction, it points out a significant issue with self-replicating nanobots, namely the potential to lose control over them. If that were to happen, it could write the last line in human history.
Will Nanoweapons of Mass Destruction (NMD) Be Our Final Invention?
You may never have heard of nanoweapons. Recent polls indicate that most people in the United States do not know about nanotechnology, let alone nanoweapons. Therefore, let us start at the beginning.
According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” The diameter of a typical human hair is about 100,000 nanometers. This means we are dealing with technology that is invisible to the naked eye or even under an optical microscope. This may suggest that nanotechnology products are rare. Nothing could be further from the truth. Numerous companies are producing commercial nanotechnology products, from cosmetics to integrated circuit microprocessors. Nanomedicine (i.e., medical nanotechnology) is using T-cell nanobots, tiny robots at the nanoscale, in medical trials to cure over eighty percent of terminally ill cancer patients. Factually, you may not have heard about nanotechnology, but you are likely using a product that incorporates it. Some estimates place the worldwide market for nanotechnology products at over $1 trillion in 2015 and estimated to grow to $3 trillion by 2020.
Nanoweapons are any military technology that exploits the power of nanotechnology. Let me provide an example. In 2007, the Russian military successfully tested the world’s most powerful non-nuclear air-delivered bomb, nicknamed the “father of all bombs.” Even though it only carries about 7 tons of explosives compared with more than 8 tons of explosives carried by the United States Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, the Russian bomb is four times more powerful. The Russians do not explain how they achieve the more destructive bomb. However, most likely they are using nanometals, such as nanoaluminum, as a catalyst to create explosives more powerful than conventional explosives. As powerful as the Russian bomb is, it still pales in comparison to nuclear weapons. Given the title of this article, you may wonder if I am being an alarmist. Let me share some information with you.
Let us start with some facts. The typical events most people consider probable to cause humanity’s extinction, such as a large asteroid or a super-volcanic eruption, have a low probability of occurrence, about 1 in 50,000. Ironically, one of the most probable events likely to cause human extinction is seldom in the media or addressed by world governments, namely molecular nanotechnology weapons (i.e., nanoweapons). In 2008, experts surveyed at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford predicted that nanoweapons have a 1 in 20 (i.e., 5%) probability of causing human extinction by the year 2100.
Are these experts right? Unfortunately, all the evidence to date suggests they are. For example, consider the simplest of all nanoweapons, toxic nanoparticles. The United States, Russia, and China know how to make toxic nanoparticles in quantities sufficient to cripple an adversary’s populace. A populace exposed to toxic nanoparticles may experience serious illnesses, including death. In sufficient quantity, toxic nanoparticles could wipe out New York City, Beijing, or Moscow, which qualifies them as nanoweapons of mass destruction (NMD). Delivery to the target populace could be as simple as introducing it into the city’s reservoirs. Even a single individual may become the target. A recent 2016 headline in Pravda, Russia’s state run newspaper, reads, “US nano weapon killed Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, scientists say.” The Venezuelan scientists mentioned in the article attributed Hugo Chavez’s death to toxic nanoparticles that cause cancer, but no data in the public domain substantiates their claim. However, the assertion itself indicates an awareness of toxic nanoparticles and their potential lethality.
What makes nanoweapons more problematic than nuclear weapons is our potential to lose control over them. For example, consider a nanobot that mimics an innocuous fly. It could be a surveillance or lethal nanoweapon. This may sound like science fiction, but it is not. On Dec. 16, 2014, the United States Army Research Laboratory announced development of a fly drone weighing only a small fraction of a gram. Using DARPA’s Fast Lightweight Autonomy (FLA) program, which allows small drones to enter buildings and avoid crashing into objects, the fly drone could spy on an adversary from within the adversary’s operations center. This gives a completely new meaning to “fly on the wall.” Alternately, it could deposit a small, but lethal amount of toxin in the adversary’s food or water. The most lethal toxin known is botulism H. As little as 100 nanograms of botulism H is lethal to humans, who would be unable to smell, taste, or see that amount of toxin. Imagine 50 million fly drones, each able to deliver a lethal toxin. In that quantity, the fly drones become nanoweapons of mass destruction. However, a quantity of that size raises a question, How do we control these nanoweapons of mass destruction? If we lost control, the fly drones could spread beyond the adversary’s boarder and begin killing indiscriminately. It becomes the technological equivalent of a bioweapon, but does not fall under the Geneva Protocol.
It may be hard to believe, but nanoweapons of mass destruction are moving from science fiction to science fact. This brings us back to the title of the post, Will Nanoweapons of Mass Destruction (NMD) Be Our Final Invention?
Will Artificial Intelligence Cause Human Extinction?
Will your grandchildren face extinction? Even worse, will they become robotic slaves to a supercomputer?
Humanity is facing its greatest challenge, artificial intelligence (AI). Recent experiments suggest even primitive artificially intelligent machines are capable of learning deceit, greed, and self-preservation, without being programmed to do so. There is alarming evidence that artificial intelligence, without legislation to police its development, will displace humans as the dominant species by the end of the twenty-first century.
There is no doubt that AI is the new scientific frontier, and it is making its way into many aspects of our lives. Our world includes “smart” machines with varying degrees of AI, including touch-screen computers, smartphones, self-parking cars, smart bombs, pacemakers, and brain implants to treat Parkinson’s disease. In essence, AI is changing the cultural landscape, and we are embracing it at an unprecedented rate. Currently, humanity is largely unaware of the potential dangers that strong artificially intelligent machines pose. In this context, the word “strong” signifies AI greater than human intelligence.
Most of humanity perceives only the positive aspects of AI technology. This includes robotic factories, such as Tesla Motors, which manufactures electric cars that are ecofriendly. There’s also the da Vinci Surgical System, a robotic platform designed to expand the surgeon’s capabilities and offer a state-of-the-art, minimally invasive option for major surgery. These are only two of many examples of how AI is positively affecting our lives. However, there is a dark side. For example, Gartner Inc., a technology research group, forecasts robots and drones will replace a third of all workers by 2025. Could AI create an unemployment crisis? The US military is deploying AI into many aspects of warfare. Will autonomous drones replace human pilots and make war more palatable to technologically advanced countries? As AI permeates the medical field, the average human lifespan will increase. Eventually, strong artificially intelligent humans (SAHs) with AI brain implants to enhance their intelligence and cybernetic organs will become immortal. Will this exacerbate the worldwide population crisis, which already as a concern at the United Nations? By 2045 most AI futurists predict that a single strong artificially intelligent machine (SAM) will exceed the cognitive intelligence of the entire human race. How will SAMs view us? Objectively, humanity is an unpredictable species. We engage in wars, develop weapons capable of destroying the world, and maliciously release computer viruses. Will SAMs view us as a threat? Will we be able to maintain control of strong AI or will we fall victim to our own invention?