Category Archives: Technology

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Will Artificial Intelligence Cause Human Extinction?

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Will your grandchildren face extinction? Even worse, will they become robotic slaves to a supercomputer?

Humanity is facing its greatest challenge, artificial intelligence (AI). Recent experiments suggest even primitive artificially intelligent machines are capable of learning deceit, greed, and self-preservation, without being programmed to do so. There is alarming evidence that artificial intelligence, without legislation to police its development, will displace humans as the dominant species by the end of the twenty-first century.

There is no doubt that AI is the new scientific frontier, and it is making its way into many aspects of our lives. Our world includes “smart” machines with varying degrees of AI, including touch-screen computers, smartphones, self-parking cars, smart bombs, pacemakers, and brain implants to treat Parkinson’s disease. In essence, AI is changing the cultural landscape, and we are embracing it at an unprecedented rate. Currently, humanity is largely unaware of the potential dangers that strong artificially intelligent machines pose. In this context, the word “strong” signifies AI greater than human intelligence.

Most of humanity perceives only the positive aspects of AI technology. This includes robotic factories, such as Tesla Motors, which manufactures electric cars that are ecofriendly. There’s also the da Vinci Surgical System, a robotic platform designed to expand the surgeon’s capabilities and offer a state-of-the-art, minimally invasive option for major surgery. These are only two of many examples of how AI is positively affecting our lives. However, there is a dark side. For example, Gartner Inc., a technology research group, forecasts robots and drones will replace a third of all workers by 2025. Could AI create an unemployment crisis? The US military is deploying AI into many aspects of warfare. Will autonomous drones replace human pilots and make war more palatable to technologically advanced countries? As AI permeates the medical field, the average human lifespan will increase. Eventually, strong artificially intelligent humans (SAHs) with AI brain implants to enhance their intelligence and cybernetic organs will become immortal. Will this exacerbate the worldwide population crisis, which already as a concern at the United Nations? By 2045 most AI futurists predict that a single strong artificially intelligent machine (SAM) will exceed the cognitive intelligence of the entire human race. How will SAMs view us? Objectively, humanity is an unpredictable species. We engage in wars, develop weapons capable of destroying the world, and maliciously release computer viruses. Will SAMs view us as a threat? Will we be able to maintain control of strong AI or will we fall victim to our own invention?

Molecular structure model showing atoms and bonds, with carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen atoms in a complex organic compound.

What is nanotechnology?

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According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” This begs a question, What is a nanometer? In simple terms, a nanometer is approximately 1/100,000 of the diameter of a human hair. A nanometer is so small that it is impossible to see it with the naked eye or even with an optical microscope. In fact, the hydrogen atom is ten times larger than a nanometer. Given these dimensions, you may wonder, How is it possible for scientists to work at the nano-level? The simple answer is that until 1980s, it was not possible. This begs the question, What changed in 1980s?

Three critical events came together in 1981 through 1989. The were:

  1. The invention of the “scanning tunneling microscope” (STM) in 1981 by Gerd Binnig and Heinrich Rohrer at IBM Zurich Research Laboratory. The STM enabled scientists to actually see atoms for the first time in history. Gerd Binnig and Heinrich Rohrer received a Nobel Prize in Physics in 1986 for their invention.
  2. K. Eric Drexler published his 1986 landmark book, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, in which he suggested the control of atoms to build nanoscale machines.
  3. Don Eigler, an IBM physicist, used the scanning tunneling microscope (STM) tip in 1989 to manipulate individual atoms to write the letters IBM. This was the first time atoms were manipulated at the atomic level.

Taken as a whole, the above events gave rise to the fields of nanotechnology. Notice, I used the plural, “fields.” This is intentional. For example, numerous diverse scientific fields engage in nanotechnology research and application, including the fields of surface science, organic chemistry, molecular biology, semiconductor physics, and microfabrication. The common element they share is that the final application has at least one element with a dimension in the nanoscale, 1-100 nanometers. From this standpoint, it is best to consider nanotechnology as a category of technologies, characterized by having at least one dimension in the nanoscale.

You may think that nanotechnology is a relatively new capability. That statement would be true for humanity. However, Mother Nature has been working at the nanoscale for billions of years. Almost all natural process start at the nanoscale. For example, consider an abalone shell. Mother nature builds it layer-by-layer at the nanoscale. Although the shell is 98% calcium carbonate, its nano structure makes it 3000 times stronger than rocks with the same chemical composition. This is just one example. The are countless others. Even human beings rely on nano processes taking place within our bodies. Our DNA (i.e., deoxyribonucleic acid), which is found in every cell of our bodies, is only 2 nanometers in diameter. Even though it is extremely small, it carries all the genetic instructions for the development, function, and reproduction of our human bodies.

The goal of this post is to address the question, What is nanotechnology? The answer is actually simple. Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers. It is not a single technology, but a category of technologies that result in applications with at least one dimension in the nanoscale (1-100 nanometers). I provided the short history and examples to afford those that read this post greater insight. What are your thoughts?

 

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The Nanoweapons Cold War

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Many believe the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Cold War. If we confine ourselves to only consider military might based on conventional and nuclear weapons, they are correct. The United States is widely considered the only superpower.

Before you take a long sigh of relief, understand a new type of Cold War emerged from the rubble. Knowing well they they cannot match the United States’ military across the board, the Russian Federation and now China are spending their military budgets to gain asymmetrical military advantages over the United States. One key area of focus is nanoweapons. Nanowek.com, the leading nanotechnology portal, reports, “All major powers are making efforts to research and develop nanotechnology-based materials and systems for military use.”

The National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), launched by President Bill Clinton in 2000,  coordinates, collaborates, and funds the nanotechnology research and development activities of 25 Federal agencies . To date, the United States government has channeled over $20,000,000,000 through NNI. In addition, each branch of the United States military performs its own nanotechnology research and development. As a result, a new class of weapons, nanoweapons, are already being deployed, from advanced laser weapons to insect size drones.

The actual amount that is spent on nanoweapons remains Top Secret, but based on publicly published budget allocations, it is reasonable to estimate its in the many $Bs annually. For example, about 15% of the NNI budget alone is  focused on DOD projects. This excludes federal agencies like DARPA (Defence Advanced Research Project Agency), which focuses on advanced military weapons. In addition, about 10% of the total defense budget of the United States (estimated at $534.3 billion in 2016) is classified, typically termed the “black budget.” Given the secrecy that surrounds nanoweapons funding, it is next to impossible to discern the exact nanoweapons budget of the United States. But, it’s relatively easy to estimate that many $Bs are being spent annually on nanoweapons development and deployment.

What fuels this new Nanoweapons Cold War? One simple paradigm, the superpowers of the future will be those nations with the most capable nanoweapons. If you have not read my earlier posts, let me digress and define nanoweapons. Nanoweapons are any military technology that exploits the power of nanotechnology. This begs another question, What is nanotechnology? According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” To understand this in simple terms, the diameter of a typical human hair equals 80,000- 100,000 nanometers. Ironically, the next big thing in military weapons technology will be small, essentially invisible to the naked eye.

The power of nanoweapons has not escaped the attention of the Russian Federation or China, as well as other countries like Germany and France. China in particular is doing everything it can to “hack” United States nanoweapons technology, as well as develop their own. Russia has even set up a “public” company, Rusnano, to pursue nanotechnology and nanoweapons. I put the word “public” in quotes because the Russian Federation currently owns all the stock of Rusnano.

The main take away from this post is that we are in a new cold war, a Nanoweapons Cold War. China and Russia are squaring off with the United States to gain an asymmetrical nanoweapons advantage. To date, the United States has the clear lead. However, recall that during the first Cold War, Russia was able to maintain near military parity with the United States via espionage and asymmetrical funding. I expect similar behavior from China and the Russian Federation during the Nanoweapons Cold War.

Image courtesy of Jonas Staub and Dreamstime Stock Photos

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How Are Wars Won in the 21st Century?

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When most of us think about winning a war, we visualize a large theater conflict, similar to WW I and II, and winning means forcing an enemy to surrender. However, that is not the nature of today’s conflicts. Without going into excessive detail, the nature of war today has numerous shades of conflict. In fact, we are engaged in a war as I write. For example, we have been at “war,” via counter insurgency and stability operations in the Middle East, following our invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Many think the United States can win any type of war, due to our military superiority. I also believe that, but perhaps for a different reason than some. When I think of military superiority, I don’t think about counting troops, tanks, battleships, fighter jets, or nuclear weapons. Why? Because, numbers alone don’t win wars. For example, in the fist Gulf War the United States and its allies destroyed many of the Russian made tanks of Saddam Hussein before they could even get a shot off. Superiority in warfare is critically dependent on technologically superior weapons and a well-trained military. In that regard, two technologies will play a critical warfare role in the 21st century. They are artificial intelligence and nanoweapons.

Most people are aware of some of the roles artificial intelligence plays, having seen news reports and video coverage of smart bombs and drones. In reality, those applications are only the proverbial “tip of the iceberg.” The United States military uses artificial intelligence in a wide array of applications, from medical diagnosis to robots that detect and defuse improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

In stark contrast, most people have never heard of nanoweapons. Yet, nanoweapons are being developed and deployed by numerous nations, including most notably the United States, China, and Russia. This begs a question, What are nanoweapons? Nanoweapons are any military technology that exploits the power of nanotechnology. This begs another question, What is nanotechnology? According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” For perspective, the diameter of a typical human hair equals 80,000- 100,000 nanometers.

Obviously, in contrast to smart bombs, drones, and nuclear weapons, nanoweapons garner few headlines and little video coverage. Yet, nanoelectronic integrated circuits, nanoparticles, nanosensors, and nanorobotics are becoming fundamental building blocks for numerous new weapons systems, from high tech laser weapons to mini-nukes. Although, the media has reported on the Navy’s high tech laser, little has been written about mini-nukes. Yet, there is evidence that mini-nukes are under development by the United States and several other nations. You may wonder, What are mini-nukes? Mini-nukes are small nano-enhanced nuclear bombs with a minuscule amount fissionable material. Mini-nukes can result in an explosion, depending on construction, that equates from one to a hundred tons of conventional explosives, with almost no radioactive fallout. For this reason, the United States may classify mini-nukes as conventional weapons, which will increase their likely hood of use in combat. Again, these are only a few examples to illustrate the development and deployment of nanoweapons.

Unfortunately, nanoweapons will ultimately evolve to become weapons of mass destruction, more problematic nuclear weapons. I will discuss this more fully in future posts. My intent in this post is to make one significant point. The outcome of future conflicts may be determined by which adversary has the most capable nanoweapons. In fact, nanoweapons will likely determine the superpowers of the 21st century. This too will become obvious in future posts.

 

Book cover titled 'Nanoweapons: Growing Threat to Humanity' by Louis A. Del Monte, featuring a small insect image.

Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity

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In 2008, experts surveyed at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford judged nanoweapons to be the #1 threat to humanity’s survival in the 21st century. The majority of people, worldwide, have never even heard of nanoweapons. Yet, a new nanoweapons arms race is raging between the United States, China, and Russia. Each side is spending billions of dollars to gain dominance in nanoweapons. Nanoweapons are based on nanotechnology. This naturally begs the question, What is nanotechnology? According to the United States National Nanotechnology Initiative’s website, nano.gov, “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers.” A nanometer is about 1/1000 the diameter of a human hair. Ironically, the next big thing in military weapons will be small and invisible to the naked eye. But make no mistake, nanoweapons promise to be potentially more destructive and harder to control than nuclear weapons. They may the last weapons humanity invents, paving our way to extinction.

In this short post, my goal is to introduce nanoweapons and their potential to lead to human extinction. My new book (available for pre-order on Amazon), Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity, describes this new class of military weapons in layperson prose. It discusses the nanoweapons in development and deployment. It projects the nanoweapons likely to dominate the future battlefield in the second half of this century. It addresses a critical question, Will it be possible to develop, deploy and use nanoweapons in warfare, without rendering humanity extinct? Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity is the first book to broach the subject. My goal in writing the book is summed up in a quote by Thomas Jefferson, “An informed citizenry is at the heart of a dynamic democracy.” I invite you to become “informed,” thus forewarned. Our future is in the balance.

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Why Are Most Artificial Intelligence Applications Female?

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Have you noticed that artificial intelligence applications you interact with, such as Google Now, Siri, and Cortana, are female? That’s not a coincidence. There are several reasons:

  • Karl Fredric MacDorman, a computer scientist and expert in human-computer interaction at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, attributes the “female” AI to the gender of the AI technologists that develop the applications. Men dominate the field of artificial intelligence research and application.
  •  Kathleen Richardson, a social anthropologist, claims that female AI is less threatening than male AI, thus more appealing.
  • Debbie Grattan, a veteran voice over artist for brands like Apple, Samsung, and Wal-Mart, claims, “Because females tend to be the more nurturing gender by nature, their voices are often perceived as a helper, more compassionate, understanding, and non-threatening.”

Stanford University Professor Clifford Nass, author of “The Man Who Lied to His Laptop: What Machines Teach Us About Human Relationships,” argues, “It’s much easier to find a female voice that everyone likes than a male voice that everyone likes.” Nass adds, “It’s a well-established phenomenon that the human brain is developed to like female voices.”

There is little doubt that the gender of choice for AI interactions with humans is female. However, you may ask, “What about the Terminator movie?” The Terminator was male. Why? The answer is to make the “Terminator” more threatening a male persona was chosen. This makes an important point. Selection of the AI voice is context sensitive. Although, male voices can come across more threatening, they also come across with more authority. This suggests that robotic police officers are likely to be “male.”

A lot of AI applications have no voice. This is especially true of military applications of AI, including United States Air Force drones and Navy torpedoes. Even some consumer AI applications find no need for a voice, such as the “popcorn” setting on your microwave.

The bottom line is simple. AI applications that seek to interact with humans in a friendly helpful manner tend to have a female voice. AI applications that want to “speak” with authority will typically have a male voice. However, many AI applications, including those that kill humans, are voiceless.

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Are You Destined to Become a Cyborg?

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The most basic definition of a cyborg is a being with both organic and cybernetic (artificial) parts. Taking this definition too literally, however, would suggest that almost every human in a civilized society is a cyborg. For example, if you have a dental filling, then you have an artificial part, and by the above definition, you are (literally) a cyborg. If we choose to restrict the definition to advanced artificial parts/machines, however, we must realize that many humans have artificial devices to replace hips, knees, shoulders, elbows, wrists, jaws, teeth, skin, arteries, veins, heart valves, arms, legs, feet, fingers, and toes, as well as “smart” medical devices, such as heart pacemakers and implanted insulin pumps to assist their organic functions. This more restrictive interpretation qualifies them as cyborgs. This definition, however, does not highlight the major element (and concern) regarding becoming a cyborg, namely, strong-AI brain implants.

While humans have used artificial parts for centuries (such as wooden legs), generally they still consider themselves human. The reason is simple: Their brains remain human. Our human brains qualify us as human beings. In my book, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution (2014), I predicted that by 2099 most humans will have strong-AI brain implants and interface telepathically with SAMs (i.e., strong artificially intelligent machines). I also argued the distinction between SAMs and humans with strong-AI brain implants will blur. Humans with strong-AI brain implants will identify their essence with SAMs. These cyborgs (strong-AI humans with cybernetically enhanced bodies), whom I call SAH (i.e., strong artificially intelligent human) cyborgs, represent a potential threat to humanity. It is unlikely that organic humans will be able to intellectually comprehend this new relationship and interface meaningfully (i.e., engage in dialogue) with either SAMs or SAHs.

Let us try to understand the potential threats and benefits related to what becoming a SAH cyborg represents. From the standpoint of intelligence, SAH cyborgs and SAMs will be at the top of the food chain. Humankind (organic humans) will be one step down. We, as organic humans, have been able to dominate the planet Earth because of our intelligence. When we no longer are the most intelligent entities on Earth, we will face numerous threats, similar to the threats we pose to other species. This will include extinction of organic humans, slavery of organic humans, and loss of humanity (strong-AI brain implants cause SAHs to identify with intelligent machines, not organic humans).

While the above summaries capsulize the threats posed by SAMs and SAHs, I have not discussed the benefits. There are significant benefits to becoming a SAH cyborg, including:

  • Enhanced intelligence: Imagine knowing all that is known and being able to think and communicate at the speed of SAMs. Imagine a life of leisure, where robots do “work,” and you spend your time interfacing telepathically with other SAHs and SAMs.
  • Immortality: Imagine becoming immortal, with every part of your physical existence fortified, replaced, or augmented by strong-AI artificial parts, or having yourself (your human brain) uploaded to a SAM. Imagine being able to manifest yourself physically at will via foglets (tiny robots that are able to assemble themselves to replicate physical structures).

Will you become a cyborg? Yes, many of us already qualify as cyborgs, based on the discussion above. Will we become SAH cyborgs? I think it likely, based on how quickly humans adopt medical technology. The lure of superior intelligence and immortality may be irresistible.

My point in writing this article was to delineate the pros and cons of becoming a SAH cyborg? Many young people will have to decide if that is the right evolutionary path for themselves.

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The Robot Wars Are Coming

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When I say “the robot wars are coming,” I am referring to the increase in the US Department of Deference’s use of robotic systems and artificial intelligence in warfare.

Recently, September 12, 2014, the US Department of Defense released a report, DTP 106: Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions. Its authors, James Kadtke and Linton Wells II, delineate the potential benefits and concerns of Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and associated technologies, as they relate to the future of warfare, stating: “This paper examines policy, legal, ethical, and strategy implications for national security of the accelerating science, technology, and engineering (ST&E) revolutions underway in five broad areas: biology, robotics, information, nanotechnology, and energy (BRINE), with a particular emphasis on how they are interacting. The paper considers the time frame between now and 2030 but emphasizes policy and related choices that need to be made in the next few years.” Their  conclusions were shocking:

  • They express concerns about maintaining the US Department of Defense’s present technological preeminence, as other nations and companies in the private sector take the lead in developing robotics, AI and human augmentation such as exoskeletons.
  • They warn that “The loss of domestic manufacturing capability for cutting-edge technologies means the United States may increasingly need to rely on foreign sources for advanced weapons systems and other critical components, potentially creating serious dependencies. Global supply chain vulnerabilities are already a significant concern, for example, from potential embedded “kill switches,” and these are likely to worsen.”
  • The most critical concern they express, in my view, is “In the longer term, fully robotic soldiers may be developed and deployed, particularly by wealthier countries, although the political and social ramifications of such systems will likely be significant. One negative aspect of these trends, however, lies in the risks that are possible due to unforeseen vulnerabilities that may arise from the large scale deployment of smar automated systems, for which there is little practical experience. An emerging risk is the ability of small scale or terrorist groups to design and build functionally capable unmanned systems which could perform a variety of hostile missions.”

It becomes obvious by reading this report and numerous similar reports, that the face of warfare is rapidly changing. It’s hard to believe we’ve come to this point, if you consider that 15 years ago Facebook and Twitter did not exist and Google was just getting started. However, even 15 years ago, drones played a critical role in warfare. For example, it was a Predator mission that located Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2000. While drones were used as early as World War II for surveillance, it wasn’t until 2001 that missile-equipped drones were completed with the deployment of Predators drones, armed with Hellfire missiles. Today, one in every three fighter planes is a drone. How significant is this change? According to Richard Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at New York University’s School of Law, “Drones are the most discriminating use of force that has ever been developed. The key principles of the laws of war are necessity, distinction and proportionality in the use of force. Drone attacks and targeted killings serve these principles better than any use of force that can be imagined.”

Where is this all headed? Within the near future, the US military will deploy completely autonomy “Kill Bots.” There are robots that are programmed to engage and destroy the enemy without human oversight or control. Science fiction? No! According a 2014 media release from officials at the Office of Naval Research (ONR), a technological breakthrough will allow any unmanned surface vehicle (USV) to not only protect Navy ships, but also, for the first time, autonomously “swarm” offensively on hostile vessels. In my opinion, autonomous Predator drones are likely either being developed or have been developed, but the information remains classified.

Artificial intelligence and robotic systems are definitely changing the face of warfare. Within a decade, I judge, based on the current trends, that about half of the offensive capability of the US Department of Deference will consist of Kill Bots in one form or another, and a large percentage of them will be autonomous.

This suggest two things to me regarding the future of warfare:

  1. Offensively fighting wars will become more palatable to the US public because machines, not humans, will perform the lion’s share of the most dangerous missions.
  2. US adversaries are also likely to use Kill Bots against us, as adversarial nations develop similar technology.

This has prompted a potential United Nations moratorium on autonomous weapons systems. To quote the US DOD report DTP 106, “Perhaps the most serious issue is the possibility of robotic systems that can autonomously decide when to take human life. The specter of Kill Bots waging war without human guidance or intervention has already sparked significant political backlash, including a potential United Nations moratorium on autonomous weapons systems. This issue is particularly serious when one considers that in the future, many countries may have the ability to manufacture, relatively cheaply, whole armies of Kill Bots that could autonomously wage war. This is a realistic possibility because today a great deal of cutting-edge research on robotics and autonomous systems is done outside the United States, and much of it is occurring in the private sector, including DIY robotics communities. The prospect of swarming autonomous systems represents a challenge for nearly all current weapon systems.”

There is no doubt that the robot wars are coming. The real question is: Will humanity survive the robot wars?

 

 

 

 

 

Abstract digital illustration of a glowing microchip with data streams and blue light effects.

Will Artificial Intelligence Result in the Merger of Man and Machine?

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Will humankind’s evolution merge with strong artificially intelligent machines (SAMs)? While no one really knows the answer to this question, many who are engaged in the development of artificial intelligence assert the merger will occur. Let’s understand what this means and why it is likely to occur.

While humans have used artificial parts for centuries (such as wooden legs), generally they still consider themselves human. The reason is simple: Their brains remain human. Our human brains qualify us as human beings. However,  by 2099 most humans will have strong-AI brain implants and interface telepathically with SAMs. This means the distinction between SAMs and humans with strong-AI brain implants, or what is termed “strong artificially intelligent humans” (i.e., SAH cyborgs), will blur. There is a strong probability, when this occurs, humans with strong-AI brain implants will identify their essence with SAMs. These cyborgs (strong-AI humans with cybernetically enhanced bodies), SAH cyborgs, represent a potential threat to humanity, which we’ll discuss below. It is unlikely that organic humans will be able to intellectually comprehend this new relationship and interface meaningfully (i.e., engage in dialogue) with either SAMs or SAHs.

Let us try to understand the potential threats and benefits related to what becoming a SAH cyborg represents. In essence, the threats are the potential extinction of organic humans, slavery of organic humans, and loss of humanity (strong-AI brain implants may cause SAHs to identify with intelligent machines, not organic humans, as mentioned above). Impossible? Unlikely? Science fiction? No! Let understand first why organic humans may choose to become SAH cyborgs.

There are significant benefits to becoming a SAH cyborg, including:

  • Enhanced intelligence: Imagine knowing all that is known and being able to think and communicate at the speed of SAMs. Imagine a life of leisure, where robots do “work,” and you spend your time interfacing telepathically with other SAHs and SAMs.
  • Immortality: Imagine becoming immortal, with every part of your physical existence fortified, replaced, or augmented by strong-AI artificial parts, or having yourself (your human brain) uploaded to a SAM. Imagine being able to manifest yourself physically at will via foglets (tiny robots that are able to assemble themselves to replicate physical structures). In my book, The Artificial Intelligent Revolution, I delineate the technology trends that suggests by the 2040s humans will develop the means to instantly create new portions of ourselves, either biological or non-biological, so that people can have a physical body at one time and not at another, as they choose.

To date, predictions regarding regarding most of humankind becoming SAH cyborgs by 2099 is on track to becoming a reality. An interesting 2013 article by Bryan Nelson, “7 Real-Life Human Cyborgs” (www.mnn.com/leaderboard/stories/7-real-life-human-cyborgs), demonstrates this point. The article provides seven examples of living people with significant strong-AI enhancements to their bodies who are legitimately categorized as cyborgs. In addition, in 2011 author Pagan Kennedy wrote an insightful article in The New York Times Magazine, “The Cyborg in Us All” that states: “Thousands of people have become cyborgs, of a sort, for medical reasons: cochlear implants augment hearing and deep-brain stimulators treat Parkinson’s. But within the next decade, we are likely to see a new kind of implant, designed for healthy people who want to merge with machines.”

Based on all available information, the question is not whether humans will become cyborgs but rather when a significant number of humans will become SAH cyborgs. Again, based on all available information, I believe this will begin to significantly occur the 2040. I am not saying that in 2040 all humans will become SAH cyborgs but that a significant number will qualify as SAH cyborgs. I do predict, along with other AI futurists, that by 2099 most humans in technologically advanced nations will become SAH cyborgs. I also predict the leaders of many of those nations will be SAH cyborgs. The reasoning behind my last prediction is simple. SAH cyborgs will be intellectually and physically superior to organic humans in every regard. In effect, they will be the most qualified to assume leadership positions.

The quest for immortality appears to be an innate human longing and may be the strongest motivation for becoming a SAH cyborg. In 2010 cyborg activist and artist Neil Harbisson and his longtime partner, choreographer Moon Ribas, established the Cyborg Foundation, the world’s first international organization to help humans become cyborgs. They state they formed the Cyborg Foundation in response to letters and e-mails from people around the world who were interested in becoming a cyborg. In 2011 the vice president of Ecuador, Lenin Moreno, announced that the Ecuadorian government would collaborate with the Cyborg Foundation to create sensory extensions and electronic eyes. In 2012 Spanish film director Rafel Duran Torrent made a short documentary about the Cyborg Foundation. In 2013 the documentary won the Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival’s Focus Forward Filmmakers Competition and was awarded $100,000.

At this point you may think that being a SAH cyborg makes logical sense and is the next step in humankind’s evolution. This may be the case, but humankind has no idea how taking that step may affect what is best in humanity, for example, love, courage, and sacrifice. My view, based on how quickly new life-extending medical technology is accepted, is that humankind will take that step. Will it serve us? I have strong reservations, but I leave it to your judgment to answer that question.

 

 

A human hand holding a robotic hand with visible mechanical and circuit details, symbolizing human-robot interaction.

By 2030 Your Best Friend May Be a Computer

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AI has changed the cultural landscape. Yet the change has been so gradual that we hardly have noticed the major impact it has. Some experts, including myself, predict that in about fifteen years, the average desktop computer will have a mind of its own, literally. This computer will be your intellectual equal and will even have a unique personality. It will be self-aware. Instead of just asking simple questions about the weather forecast, you may be confiding your deepest concerns to your computer and asking it for advice. It will have migrated from personal assistant to personal friend. You likely will give it a name, much in the same way we name our pets. You will be able to program its personality to have interests similar to your own. It will have face-recognition software, and it will recognize you and call you by name, similar to the computer HAL 9000 in Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. The conversations between you and your “personal friend” will appear completely normal. Someone in the next room who is not familiar with your voice will not be able to tell which voice belongs to the computer and which voice belongs to you.

This is a good place for us to ask an important question: “How can we determine whether an intelligent machine has become conscious (self-aware)?” We do not have a way yet to determine whether even another human is self-aware. I only know that I am self-aware. I assume that since we share the same physiology, including similar human brains, you are probably self-aware as well. However, even if we discuss various topics, and I conclude that your intelligence is equal to mine, I still cannot prove you are self-aware. Only you know whether you are self-aware.

The problem becomes even more difficult when dealing with an intelligent machine. The gold standard for an intelligent machine’s being equal to the human mind is the Turing test, which I discuss in chapter 5. As of today no intelligent machine can pass the Turing test unless its interactions are restricted to a specific topic, such as chess. However, even if an intelligent machine does pass the Turing test and exhibits strong AI, how can we be sure it is self-aware? Intelligence may be a necessary condition for self-awareness, but it may not be sufficient. The machine may be able to emulate consciousness to the point that we conclude it must be self-aware, but that does not equal proof.

Even though other tests, such as the ConsScale test, have been proposed to determine machine consciousness, we still come up short. The ConsScale test evaluates the presence of features inspired by biological systems, such as social behavior. It also measures the cognitive development of an intelligent machine. This is based on the assumption that intelligence and consciousness are strongly related. The community of AI researchers, however, does not universally accept the ConsScale test as proof of consciousness. In the final analysis, I believe most AI researchers agree on only two points:

  1. There is no widely accepted empirical definition of consciousness (self-awareness).
  2. A test to determine the presence of consciousness (self-awareness) may be impossible, even if the subject being tested is a human being.

The above two points, however, do not rule out the possibility of intelligent machines becoming conscious and self-aware. They merely make the point that it will be extremely difficult to prove consciousness and self-awareness.

There is little doubt that intelligent machines by the year 2030 will be able to interact with organic humans, much the same way we are able to interact with each other. If it is programmed to share your interests and has strong affective computing capabilities (i.e., affective computing relates to machines having human-like emotions), you may well consider it a friend, even a best friend. Need proof? Just observe how additive computer games are to people in all walks of life and various age groups. Now imagine an intelligent machine that is able to not only play computer based games, but discuss any subject you’d like to discuss. I predict interactions with such machines will become additive and may even reduce human to human interactions.