Category Archives: climate change
Headed For A New Ice Age? Latest Data Says Yes!
Politics In Science
Many of us would like to believe that science is the search for truth as it relates to the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world. However, that belief is only partially true.
Scientific research is often driven by government grants and contracts, whether you’re in a university or Fortune 500 company. While the research itself may follow the scientific method and lead to unbiased results, politics determines the fate of those results. For example, the carbon dioxide level is currently about 400 parts per million (ppm). For the last 650,000 to about 1950, the carbon dioxide level never cross the 300 ppm level. However, with the increased use of fossil fuel, such as coal and gasoline, the carbon dioxide level began climbing to its current level. The bad news, it is still climbing. At 500 ppm it is a health hazard to humans.
Well over 90% of the scientific community agrees that global warming is related to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is a “greenhouse” gas that traps heat. As a result, we are seeing the sea level rise and the Gulf of Mexico become a catcher’s mitt for the increased frequency of hurricanes. In addition to the human suffering caused by climate change, there is a financial impact. According to the US Government Accountability Office’s Website, their report “Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure” projects climate change will cost the US Government “between $4 billion and $6 billion in annual coastal property damages from sea level rise and more frequent and intense storms,” between 2020 and 2039. However, the reality of climate change is being treated as a political issue. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), for example, kept three scientists from speaking at the October 23rd Narragansett Bay Estuary Program workshop on the 2017 State of Narragansett Bay and Its Watershed report.
The government has the ability to politicize science by directing research via:
- University grants
- Military industrial complex programs
- Government laboratories/agencies programs
- Censorship of government scientists
Obviously, science is no longer the pure search for truth regarding natural phenomena. Today’s science follows the government’s roadmap. Acting on results is a political decision, even when life and death are in the balance.
What does all this mean? Science is riddled with politics. Scientists working on government programs have two choices, follow the government roadmap or quit. Let me be clear. I am not talking about defense contract research, which for security reasons must be kept secret. I am talking about fundamental science, such as climate change research, which should proceed without censorship or political agendas.
Unfortunately, the EPA’s mission of “protecting human health and the environment” is now politicized to the point that they will censor government scientists and deny the reality of climate change. Although the World Health Organization estimates that “Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress,” the EPA director, Scott Pruitt, told CNBC that “ “I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.” Pruitt is an attorney, not a scientist. However, he apparently feels comfortable challenging the mass of scientific evidence that contradicts his viewpoint.
Human endeavors tend to always be inherently political, including scientific research. However, politics in science should be confined to interpreting the results, not refuting results that have been widely established via the scientific method. For example, are these irrefutable facts or results open to interpretation:
- Greenhouse gasses, like carbon dioxide, trap heat.
- Carbon dioxide is increasing dramatically to the point that the amount of heat trapped is causing sea levels to rise and weather extremes, such as droughts and hurricanes.
- The increase in carbon dioxide is due to human activity, specifically burning fossil fuels like coal and gasoline.
The bulk of the scientific community would argue they are facts. Is it possible they are wrong? Yes, it is possible. However, government censorship and policies will not set the truth free. As Einstein stated, “ Truth is what stands the test of experience.” If we examine our current experience, we are seeing unprecedented carbon dioxide levels associated with unprecedented climate change. We need to embrace the facts and work on solutions. Governments can censor scientists or deny reality, but Mother Nature will have the final say.
EPA Gags Scientists Amid Skyrocketing Climate Change Economic Impact
In its latest move to silence any discussion of climate change, the Environmental Protection Agency kept three scientists from speaking at a Monday event regarding the health of Narragansett Bay, New England’s largest estuary. The irony is that the EPA is the sole funder of the $600,000 program that published the document, the Narragansett Bay Estuary Program.
However, silencing discussions on climate change is impossible given the unprecedented frequency of environmental disasters. Former EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, who served under President George W. Bush, told CNN that the environmental devastation from the last three hurricanes and droughts that led to forest fires is going to cost US taxpayers upwards of $300 billion dollars. However, Ms. Whitman noted that estimate does not include the devastation in Puerto Rico from hurricane Maria or the current wildfires in Northern California that have already claimed 233,000 acres and 8400 structures. While no one specific environmental disaster can be directly attributed directly to climate change, Ms. Whitman stated, “…scientists say this is what you can expect.”
It is also going to become increasingly difficult to salience discussions on climate change as the cost of dealing with environmental disasters skyrockets. According to the US Government Accountability Office’s Website today, their report “Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure” projects climate change will cost the US Government “between $4 billion and $6 billion in annual coastal property damages from sea level rise and more frequent and intense storms,” between 2020 and 2039.
The current EPA Director, Scott Pruitt, is under attack, literally. In addition to criticism over his direction of the EPA, Pruitt has received multiple death threats. As a result, Pruitt doubled his security and added a new soundproof booth in his office. According to CNN, this prompted Reps. Peter DeFazio and Grace Napolitano to request the EPA inspector general to investigate potential misuse of taxpayer funds by Pruitt.
Unfortunately, denying the science that underpins climate change is due to human activity will have no effect on the ever-increasing weather extremes. In March, Pruitt stated carbon dioxide is not a “primary contributor” to global warming, a statement that scientists around the globe argue is false. Carbon dioxide is a “greenhouse” gas and traps heat. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.” The current level of carbon dioxide is hovering around 400 parts per million, 100 parts per million higher than any time in the last 650,000 years. Most scientists agree this increase is unequivocally due to human activity. The bad news is that the carbon dioxide level continues to rise. At 500 parts per million, it becomes a health hazard to humans.
Many people think that climate change, specifically global warming, means that it is just going to get slightly warmer around the Earth. However, that is not how it works. Global warming causes weather extremes, similar to the recent frequency of hurricanes and droughts we’ve experienced. It also means loss of coastal lands as the world’s oceans rise due to heat expansion and glacial melting. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2014, global sea level was 2.6 inches above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Sea level continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.
Higher sea levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges push farther inland than they once did, which also means more frequent nuisance flooding. Disruptive and expensive, nuisance flooding is estimated to be from 300 percent to 900 percent more frequent within U.S. coastal communities than it was just 50 years ago.
The evidence is clear. The Earth is experiencing climate change due in large part to human activity. The economic impact, in addition to human suffering, is enormous. Removing EPA regulations and denying the science will create more jobs. Unfortunately, those jobs will be in the emergency relief agencies and health agencies.
Record Scorching Temperatures Are Result of Global Warming
When many people hear about global warming, it conjures images of the world’s temperature getting just a little warmer. NASA’s website asserts, “the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade.”
An increase of 1.4° Fahrenheit does not seem extreme. Actually, it seems relatively mild. Unfortunately, that is not how global warming works. We do not experience a slightly mild increase in temperature worldwide. We experience, instead, extremes in climate change. However, when added together they result in an average temperature increase of only 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) across the Earth’s surface.
Cyclical events, such as night, day, change of seasons, precipitation patterns, can fluctuate significantly on a local basis. However, the global temperature depends on how much energy the Earth receives from the Sun, minus the amount it radiates back into space. The amount of energy the Earth receives from the Sun is almost constant over the course of a single year, but does vary significantly with the 11-year sunspot solar cycle. For the most part, the amount of energy the Earth receives from the Sun is predictable. However, the amount of energy radiated by the Earth depends on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, and that is what is causing global warming. The chemical composition of the atmosphere is changing, particularly the increasing amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). It is the increase in greenhouse gases that is causing the Earth’s temperature to rise. Some refer to this phenomenon as the “greenhouse effect.”
One or two degrees (Fahrenheit) average temperature change may not appear like a big deal, but historically a one- to two-degree drop was all it took to plunge the Earth into the Little Ice Age. Likewise, a one to two degrees increase is now causing the sea level to rise. The sustained increase in temperature between 1880 and 2009 caused the sea level to increase an average of eight inches. The measured sea level increase on the United States East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico is even higher by several inches. Since 1993, the average annual rate of global sea level rise is accelerating. This increase in the average sea level is largely due to melting ice at the polar caps and the thermal expansion (i.e., expansion due to heat) of the ocean. If the current trend continues, recent studies project sea level increases from six to twenty feet by 2100. While six feet sounds manageable, it would represent a loss of land mass for the United States equal to Massachusetts. If the sea level increase is twenty feet, the United States coastline would be unrecognizable and the land loss would equal 48,000 square miles, displacing five percent of the United States population. The same would be true of all countries that border the world’s oceans. While there is still debate regarding how much the sea will rise, none argues the contrary.
In addition, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), seven million people die each year from prolonged exposure to air pollution directly caused by burning fossil fuels. In highly industrialized urban areas, each breath could be equivalent to puffing on a cigarette. We humans may find a way to engineer around this toxic environment by using special air and water filters in our homes, cars, and workplaces. However, numerous species will not be as fortunate. In fact, experts predict that one-fourth of Earth’s species will be heading toward extinction by 2050. By 2100, those same experts warn that humanity may face extinction.
There is little doubt that human activity is playing a significant role in global warming. NASA reports carbon dioxide levels have increased nearly 38 percent as of 2009 and methane levels have increased 148 percent since the 1750 Industrial Revolution. Indeed, for most of the 20th century, atmospheric carbon dioxide averaged in the mid 200 parts per million (ppm). Today, NASA reports it is over 400 ppm and it is on a trajectory that continues to increase.
Where does all this carbon dioxide come from? The preponderance of evidence argues climate change, air pollution, and acid rain results from burning fossil fuels to power the machines of modern civilization. If you live in modern society, everything you use relies on fossil fuels, in one form or another. For example, consider any product. Fossil fuels may be essential for powering the machines that make the product, be a critical ingredient in the product, and/or be necessary to ship the product to market.
Unless we change the current trajectory of increasing greenhouse gasses, expect climatic disasters, including storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts. Currently, California and Arizona are experiencing scorching temperatures. Tomorrow, wherever you are, it may be your turn to experience a climatic disaster.
Fixing global warming first requires we recognize it is a reality and attributable to human activity. Although many fossil fuel phase-out initiatives are taking place at the state and local levels, in reality, we are a nation unprepared for the inevitable. Some nations, like Sweden, do have a plan to fade out fossil fuels. Most, though, ignore the risks. However, we all share the same planet. When the climate passes the tipping point, it will affect everyone. When air pollution becomes an even more potent killer, it will not discriminate. It will affect everyone.
This is not a political issue or a matter of opinion. It is a scientific issue and a matter of life and death.
What Is Causing Climate Change?
Let’s look at climate change from a scientific perspective, but acknowledge lay public opinion. About 97% of scientists, based on published peer reviewed papers, and 75% of the lay public, based on opinion polls, believe the current trend in global warming is due to human activity, especially burning fossil fuels. Here are some salient facts:
- According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations, the Earth’s climate is warming, as discuss in Chapter 5. The IPCC estimates there is a 95% probability that humans are causing most of it by burning fossil fuels, engaging in deforestation, and using aerosol spray
- According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, the number one cause of climate change comes from burning fossil fuels, with over 40% due to burning coal to generate electricity and 33% from vehicle emissions.
- Numerous other respected scientific organization, such as the Royal Society, American Geophysical Union, Joint Science Academies, American Meteorological Society, and American Association for the Advancement of Science, also attribute global warming to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations
- About 3% of scientists disagree and the popular media have given them strong representation. This in turn has caused significant lay public and political debate, especially in the United States
- The scientific consensus in a “nutshell”: The rapid increase in carbon dioxide, which has almost doubled during the last century to the point it is becoming toxic to numerous species, is responsible for the “greenhouse effect.” {Note: Merriam-Webster.com defines the “greenhouse effect” as follows: warming of the surface and lower atmosphere of a planet (as Earth or Venus) that is caused by conversion of solar radiation into heat in a process involving selective transmission of short wave solar radiation by the atmosphere, its absorption by the planet’s surface, and reradiation as infrared which is absorbed and partly reradiated back to the surface by atmospheric gases}
- Dissenting scientific views: There is no consensus among dissenting scientists regarding the cause of climatic change. Dissenting debate has centered on two points:
- Climate sensitivity – how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases
- Consequences of global warming – how the climate will respond locally and globally to greenhouse gases
The preponderance of scientific evidence makes a strong case that human activity, especially burning fossil fuels, is responsible for global warming. It points out no scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of the main points put forward by the IPCC.
Is Climate Change Real?
Although the reality of climate change has become a political issue, the scientific evidence argues it is real. Consider these points:
- The change in the atmosphere – NASA data indicates that the levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. In 2013, carbon dioxide levels surpassed 400 ppm (i.e., parts per million) for the first time in recorded history, and it continues to rise. At levels above 550 ppm, the carbon dioxide will become harmful to humans
- Global temperature increase – NASA data shows an increase in global temperatures. Best scientific estimates suggest a rise of 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) since 1880. Recent data indicates most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s
- Sea level rise – EPA data, including satellite measurements, indicates a global sea level rise of 8 inches since 1880 due to melting ice at the polar caps and the thermal expansion of “warming oceans”
- The warming oceans – NASA data indicates the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969
- Shrinking ice sheets – NASA’s data shows Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006. Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005
- Declining Arctic sea ice – NASA data indicates that the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. In response, NASA has launched “Operation IceBridge” to image the Earth’s polar ice and understand processes that connect the polar regions with the global climate system
- Glacial retreat – factually, glaciers are retreating around the world, including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa
- Extreme events – According to the EPA the number of record high temperature events has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. Concurrently, intense rainfall events are increasing
- Ocean acidification – According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent since the Industrial Revolution. This increase results from the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans, which is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year
- Decreased snow cover – NASA satellites reveal that the spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier
The preponderance of scientific evidence suggests that the climate is trending toward catastrophic change. This leads to an important question, “Why?” I’ll address “Why?” in my next post.