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Scenario: The North Korean Incident 2025

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This scenario is intended to illustrate the role artificial intelligence will play in the near future. Please let me know if you like it, and I will provide more scenarios that educate and entertain.

Scenario: The North Korean Incident 2025

The buzz of USAF Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Martin’s tablet phone on his nightstand woke him. He reached for it as quickly as possible. He did not want it to wake his wife. It was 4:12 A.M. The flashing red light indicated the call was urgent and coming through on Nellis’ secure intranet. The caller ID displayed Major Jensen, one of his subordinates at Nellis Warfare Center. As he sat on the edge of the bed, he touched the answer icon, “Martin.”

Jensen’s voice had a sense of urgency. “Sorry to disturb you, Colonel.” Jensen paused. “We have an MQ-10 that’s TU in North Korea’s airspace. The protocol requires I contact you.”

“Yes… of course….” Martin moved to the hallway and closed the bedroom door. He knew that “TU” was an abbreviation for “tits up,” meaning that the MQ-10 was either down, inoperative, broken, or otherwise malfunctioning.

Now completely awake, he asked, “What’s the operational status?”

“It’s fully loaded and non-responsive.”

This meant the MQ-10 had four Hellfire missiles, two GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bombs, plenty of fuel, and was not under their control. To his mind, this had World War III written all over it.

With uncharacteristic haste, he asked, “Who’s the interface?”

“Captain Levey.”

“Where are you?”

“I’m with Levey in T-7.”

“I’ll be right there.”

He returned to the bedroom and turned on his nightstand light. As quietly as possible, he began to dress. His wife was a light sleeper, something that comes with being a Mom.

His wife opened her eyes to about half-mast, “Something wrong?”

“A problem at the base…sorry I woke you.”

She knew better than to ask. She had also mastered the ability to shut her mind down and go back to sleep.

“Be safe…” Her eyes slits closed.

He completed dressing, got into his driverless vehicle, and headed for Nellis’ Warfare Center. During the five-minute drive, he could not help but wonder about the new MQ-10s. He was always dubious about enabling fighter aircraft with SAM (i.e., strong artificially intelligent machine) autonomous control. However, that decision was a done deal, four levels above his pay grade.

The MQ-10 was General Atomics’ latest engineering drone marvel. The biggest changes introduced in the MQ-10, over its predecessor, the MQ-9 Reaper, were:

  • Active stealth, which allowed it to elude Chinese, North Korean, and Russian radar systems
  • A large flexible internal weapons loadout (i.e., two Hellfire missiles, two AIM-120C Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, plus either two general-purpose GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bombs or two anti-ship Harpoon missiles)
  • Significantly increased long-endurance, high-altitude surveillance
  • Onboard fully autonomous AI control

The MQ-10 was the first USAF fighter plane with a SAM at its core. In short, the onboard SAM was equivalent to a human pilot. Actually, “equivalent” is an understatement. The onboard SAM was able to react to changes in its environment at about three times the rate of a human pilot, including combat engagements. Once the MQ-10 received mission parameters, it worked out its own plan to accomplish the mission. The onboard SAM also enabled specifically equipped MQ-10s to take off and land on Navy aircraft carriers, remarkable new flexibility in drone deployment. Lastly, MQ-10s could network with each other and execute coordinated attacks on enemy targets. Ground crews for MQ-10s had roles similar to ground crews of human-piloted fighter aircraft. However, the MQ-10’s modular construction and internal diagnostics allowed a more rapid return to combat-ready status than their conventional human-piloted counterparts. In 2015, one in three fighter aircraft were drones. By 2025, about half the fighter aircraft were drones, upgraded with SAMs.

As soon as the vehicle pulled into the base, it drove to the entrance of T-7. Martin made his way up to T-7’s stairs, a trailer-like container that was one of the control centers for MQ-10s. After punching in his code and visual confirmation, the door opened to a dimly lit room aglow with computer monitors. He saw Jensen sitting next to Levey and began walking toward them.

Jensen heard Martin enter, stood up, and saluted. “Colonel in the Command Center.”

Before the others could stand, Martin quickly returned the salute, “As you were.” He continued to make his way toward Jensen and Levey.

He tapped Levey on the shoulder. “What’s up?”

Levey maintained his focus on the monitor. “I’m not sure, sir. Just an hour ago, we were on a routine surveillance mission over Musudan-ri. Our active stealth appeared to be working, and Silver Hawk was routinely monitoring the site.”

Martin knew that Musudan-ri was a rocket-launching site in North Korea. It lies in the southern North Hamgyong province, near the northern tip of East Korea Bay. It was ideally located to attack Japan. However, recent intel suggested that Musudan-ri had North Korean manufactured intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with nuclear warheads, capable of reaching targets in the U.S. He assumed that “Silver Hawk” was the call name of the MQ-10. The Pentagon specifically chose the MQ-10s to keep close tabs on Musudan-ri and neutralize it, if necessary.

“Then what happened?” Martin asked in a calm tone.

“Then Silver Hawk stopped transmitting.”

“Is it still flying?”

“Satellite surveillance says yes.”

“What’s it doing now?”

“It is still flying in a position to maintain surveillance of Musudan-ri.”

“Have you tried giving it a command to return to base?”

“Yes, sir…no response.”

“Get me an MQ-10 system engineer ASAP.”

“Yes, sir.” Levey hastily made the call. “He’s on the way, sir.

Within several minutes, Lieutenant Louis Della entered and saluted. “I’m an MQ-10 system engineer.”

Martin looked at Della. Clean cut and green, he thought. “Tell me, Lieutenant, why would an MQ-10 become unresponsive?”

“There could be many reasons….”

Martin sharply cut him off. “Confine your answer to the top three.”

“Well, sir, the MQ-10 is essentially a flying SAM. It is the equivalent of a human pilot, only better in most respects.” Della paused to regain his composure and then continued in a textbook fashion, “In the order of most probable, here are the top three. One, the MQ-10 may have recognized a threat and is intentionally not communicating to avoid any chance of detection. Two, the MQ-10 has a malfunction, which is preventing it from communicating. In such a case, it would continue to follow its last order. Three, the MQ-10 has gone rogue.”

“Gone rogue!” Jensen said with a look of surprise. “What the hell would cause that to happen?”

Della replied in a calm tone, “We have done laboratory simulations of the MQ-10 SAMs and found that, just like their human pilot counterparts, they can suffer from PTSD.”

Jensen raised his voice. “You’re telling me we have an autonomous fighter aircraft in North Korean airspace, and it may have post-traumatic stress disorder?”

“It’s a possibility….”

“It’s a goddam machine.”

“Yes… but simulations indicate there is the potential for it to become self-aware and concerned for its well-being.”

“That wasn’t in the goddam manual.”

“No sir… The possibility is slim and just coming to light, based on diagnostics we recently performed on SAMs that have flown over a hundred missions.” Della paused again, intent on remaining calm. “It is a possibility, but not the most likely.”

Martin reengaged. “What is the most likely?”

“It recognized a threat and is intentionally not communicating to avoid any chance of detection.”

“Would it fire a missile without permission?”

“It’s possible.”

Martin turned to Jensen, “We’ve got to get a handle on this.”

“Yes, sir.”

“I want you to work with Della and develop a plan ASAP… You have thirty minutes. I am going to stay with Levey.”

Jensen got up and gestured to Della to follow him. They went to an office within T-7. Jensen and Della huddled. Martin could see Della outlining something on the whiteboard as Jensen listened intently.

“Captain Levey… can you disable the Hellfire missiles.”

“No… but we can destroy Silver Hawk.”

A drone exploding in North Korea’s airspace was not an acceptable option to Martin. It would compromise all drone missions if the North Koreans learned it could elude the air defenses. In addition, the North Koreans were unpredictable. They could consider it an act of war and retaliate on South Korea or even Japan. Although both South Korea and Japan could defend themselves, the situation could spiral out of control.

“No!” Martin was emphatic. “Not over North Korea. Continue attempting to establish contact with Silver Hawk.”

“Yes, sir.” Levey’s fingers appeared to fly over the keyboard. Martin had his eyes focused on the satellite surveillance monitor.

Jensen and Della returned. Jensen summarized, “Based on the most likely scenario, our best move is to get all other MQ-10s out of North Korea’s airspace and take a wait and see with Silver Hawk. Della believes it will return to the base when it hits “Bingo.” He thinks if it had gone rogue, we would have noticed aggressive behavior.” Jensen paused and waited for a response.

Bingo was slang for the fuel state at which an aircraft needs to begin its return to base to land safely. This made sense. Actually, Martin liked Jensen’s plan. Silver Hawk was not acting aggressively. In fact, Silver Hawk was doing everything it could to remain invisible while still appearing to carry out its last order.

Martin looked at Jensen. “Get the other MQ-10s…”

Levey interrupted. “North Korea just opened one of Musudan-ri’s missile silos. It looks like they are getting ready to fire a missile.”

“Can you tell me what type of missile?”

“Yes…our intel says that silo contains an intermediate-range ballistic missile.”

“If it’s an IRBM, the U.S. is not the target…maybe Japan or South Korea.”

“They just fired the missile.”

“Tell me the probable target,” Martin said in a measured cadence.

“Not at our MQ-10. It looks like it is on its way to Japan.”

A tense minute passed as everyone’s eyes stared with disbelief at the satellite surveillance monitor.

Levey brought another monitor online to increase the satellite surveillance resolution on Tokyo and Okinawa, the locations of Japan’s ground-based PAC-3 interceptors.

Levey was an expert on satellite surveillance and could read the screen as though he were watching television. “The Japanese have just launched a PAC-3 from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa.”

Everyone observed a bright dot on the monitor.

A flash of scenarios went through Martin’s mind. Is this just another game of chicken that the North Koreans like to play with the Japanese, or is this the beginning of World War III?

North Korea had a history of using their ballistic missiles to bully the Japanese, which started in 1998 with North Korea’s Taepodong-1 missile “test.” In 2006, North Korea performed its first nuclear test and followed by additional missile launches. The most provocative act was North Korea’s “communications satellite” launch in April 2009, which flew over northeast Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean.

“The PAC-3 will intercept North Korea’s IRBM in 30 seconds.” Levey’s voice had an edgy pitch.

Martin’s earpiece came to life, “What the hell is going on?” It was General Rodney. The release of missiles by North Korea and Japan automatically triggered Rodney to be notified, and his staff got him out of bed. They knew Martin was the senior officer on site and routed Rodney to his earpiece.

Martin replied with composure, “We’re on top of it, sir. It’s not clear if the North Koreans are engaging in a war game with the Japanese… We have MQ-10s in position… We’re going to have to let this play out. Give me a few minutes, and I’ll get back to you.”

Martin did not have time to explain the entire situation to Rodney. He knew the North Koreans had historically fired missiles that appeared to be targeting Japan but had never actually detonated one on Japan. Japan, in recent years, also fired missiles at North Korea’s Musudan-ri but destroyed them short of reaching their airspace. The Japanese wanted to make a point—they could not only detect and counter any attack originating from North Korea but were also capable of attacking North Korea. This cat and mouse game was provocative and dangerous but not considered an act of war.

“Don’t let this get out of hand, Martin.” Rodney sounded pissed.

“Yes, sir,” he said the words, but he knew he had little control over the events.

Levey gave a count down. “Missiles contact in 15 seconds…10 seconds. The North Koreans just destroyed their missile.” Levey paused, still watching the PAC-3 trajectory and the red dot disappeared.

“Kadena just destroyed their PAC-3 missile over the Sea of Japan,” said Levey. “It doesn’t look like we’re going to war today.”

Martin was relieved and looked at Levey. “Get me, Rodney, on the phone.”

Levey got Rodney patched through to Martin’s earpiece. “Both missiles were destroyed before making contact. It looks like the North Korean’s were in their bully mode again.”

“Keep an eye on this, Martin. I’ll call the Pentagon and let them know.”

“Yes, sir,” he intentionally did not mention the potential MQ-10 issue.

Martin turned to Della. “Could this be the reason Silver Hawk went silent?”

“Could be…” Della speculated and paused… “But, it still doesn’t explain the whole story.”

“What’s the whole story?”

“Silver Hawk should have at least sent an acknowledgment by now.” Della paused, placing his thumb and index fingers of his right hand on his closed eyelids. “Something’s not right….”

Martin looked at Jensen. “How many MQ-10s do we have in North Korea’s airspace?”

“Three, including Silver Hawk.”

“Order all MQ-10s to return to base.”

Levey didn’t wait on Jensen’s order. He immediately began to type on his computer keyboard and announced, “They’re breaking their surveillance pattern and setting a course for Osan Air Base.

Osan Air Base was the USAF’s 51st Fighter Wing home, under Pacific Air Forces’ Seventh Air Force. Its role was to provide combat-ready forces in defense of South Korea.

“Even Silver Hawk?” Martin wanted Levey’s confirmation that Silver Hawk responded to the return to base order.

“Yes, sir.”

“When will they be clear of South Korea’s airspace?”

“Silver Hawk will be clear in 30 minutes. Black Hawk and Eagle 4 will be clear in 20 minutes. All should be on the ground at Osan within 90 minutes.”

“Is Silver Hawk communicating?”

“No… Still unresponsive.”

Martin looked at Della but did not have to ask; his eyes seemed to penetrate Della’s brain.

“Something is amiss on Silver Hawk,” Della’s tone was subdued and concerned. “It should be communicating.”

“Captain Levey, be ready to destroy Silver Hawk on my command.” Martin was taking no chances. “Let me know the second we are clear of North Korea’s airspace.”

Martin could see beads of sweat on Levey’s forehead, even though the room temperature was 63 degrees. Obviously, Levey’s adrenalin was pumping. Destroying an MQ-10 had no precedent.

Each minute felt like an hour to Levey. Finally, Silver Hawk was clear.

“We’re clear.” Levey’s tone was relieved.

Martin looked at both Jansen and Della. Both were still intently watching the monitors. Della was attempting to loosen his collar with his finger. Martin knew Della was nervous. Jansen, a former fighter pilot, appeared composed.

“Levey, order Silver Hawk to drop its Hellfire missiles, AIM-120s and GBU-12s.” Martin wanted to error on the side of caution. Martin knew each Hellfire represented an $82,000 investment, each AIM-120 $400,000 and each GBU-12 $26,000, in 2025 dollars. He would be essentially dropping over a million dollars worth of weapons into the Sea of Japan. There was a chance the Navy could recover the weapons using their “UMSs” (unmanned maritime systems). UMSs were the U.S. Navy’s equivalent to the USAF’s drones.

“Order given…Silver Hawk not responding.”

“Communicate to Osan Air Base that Silver Hawk should be treated as a ‘Bandit.’”

In USAF parlance, this meant that it was unclear that Silver Hawk was a friend. It might act as or foe.

“Ask them to intercept Silver Hawk.” Martin wanted Osan to scramble an F-22 to check out Silver Hawk before it was in striking distance of Osan.

“Osan acknowledges and has launched an F-22. ETA to Silver Hawk, 12 minutes.”

Martin, Jensen, and Levey kept their eyes glued to the satellite monitor.

Levey broke the silence, “Silver Hawk should already be able to detect the F-22 and recognize it as a friendly.” Levey paused, his eyes the size of Kennedy half-dollars. “Silver Hawk has fired two AIM-120Cs at our F-22.”

“What the hell is wrong with Silver Hawk?” Martin demanded, looking at Della as if he had an answer.

“It’s gone rogue,” Della said quickly. “Destroy it.”

“Destroy it,” Martin Commanded.

“Silver Hawk is not responding to the destroy command.” Levey’s voice seemed to change pitch. “The F-22 is taking evasive measures and has released two AIM-120C missiles.”

The AIM-120Cs were Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs, with smaller “clipped” aero surfaces to enable the internal carriage. It was one of the USAF’s best air-to-air missiles and gave excellent service for the last fifteen years. However, it was not designed to deal with active stealth.

“Silver Hawk is taking evasive maneuvers. It is giving out a radar signature that makes it invisible. It may be able to fool the AIM 120Cs.” Levey called the action, almost like a sportscaster, as it displayed on his monitors. “The F-22 has evaded the AIM-120Cs.”

“What the hell?” Martin was angry and focused on Della. “Why did it ignore the destroy order?”

“The Silver Hawk’s SAM must have found a way to disable it.”

“Are you telling me that we can’t control our own goddam weapons?”

“Yes… They were designed to be completely autonomous.”

“But the destroy order doesn’t go through the SAM. It’s an independent system.”

“The SAM must have found some way to disengage it. We’re dealing with a machine that is more intelligent than the three of us together.”

Martin was angry and pissed. Goddam Engineers, he thought, they’ll eventually find some way to start World War III.

“Levey, tell Osan they have a confirmed hostile MQ-10 with two Hellfires and two GBU-12s  heading their way,” ordered Martin.

Levey’s fingers appeared to type at superhuman speed. “Osan acknowledged,” Levey said in a strained voice. “They are launching another MQ-10, Night Owl. It will try to network with Silver Hawk.”

“Network…?”

“Yes… Their MQ-10 ground engineer thinks that Night Owl may be able to talk Silver Hawk down. It also has the ability to overcome its active stealth. If need be, it will kamikaze it.”

Martin was in disbelief—his thoughts were flashing at light speed. Night Owl is similar to Silver Hawk. Silver Hawk was just a machine, but now it has become hostile. Would Night Owl actually be willing to sacrifice itself to stop Silver Hawk?

Looking up from his monitor, Levey stated, “Night Owl is networking with Silver Hawk.”

“What the hell does that mean?” Martin asked in total disbelief.

“The communication is encrypted and too rapid for me to decipher… It seems to be working. Silver Hawk just dropped its remaining weapons into the Sea of Japan.” Levey kept his eyes glued to the screen. “They are both on a course to land at Osan.”

“What the hell just happened?” Martin’s earpiece erupted with Rodney’s angry voice.

“We had a serious malfunction with an MQ-10. Apparently, our new weapons have minds of their own and can suffer PTSD.”

“It’s a goddam machine.” Rodney was pissed, and his voice signaled bewilderment.

“That’s what I thought, but we’re going to need to run diagnostics. Apparently, the machines think they can disobey direct orders….”

“What the hell… I want to know how to fix it. Get on it, Martin. The MQ-10s are a critical element in our defense.”

“Yes, sir. We’ll run diagnostics as soon as it lands and get the engineers working on it ASAP.”

“I want answers in six hours. Call me with your report.”

“Yes, sir.”

Martin had an uneasy feeling that this was just the beginning. There was a lot to learn. Every branch of the service was fielding SAM weapons. The U.S. Navy was deploying SAM nuclear submarines and destroyers. The U.S. Army was deploying SAM tanks. His gut told him that SAMs had developed a self-preservation instinct without specific programming to do so. He had to get this information to the highest military and civilian leaders. He would make the call in six hours, but he knew a full report was necessary and could take a month or more. He doubted that Rodney grasped the gravity of what had just happened. Martin even had trouble grasping the gravity, and he saw every detail unfold.

Although Martin did not understand every technical detail, his mind came to grip with a new reality. We have created the ultimate ‘fire and forget’ killing machines. Now, we have to learn to control them before they turn on us.

End of Scenario

A large fire bomb is coming out of the ground.

What Would Happen If The US And Russia Engaged In A Full-Scale Nuclear War?

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This is an excerpt from my new book, War at the Speed of Light. Enjoy!

According to the US Congress’ Office of Technology (OTA) study in 1979, immediate deaths in the United States could range from 70 million to 160 million (35 to 80 percent of the population). Russian fatalities would be approximately 20 to 40 percent lower. Many more in both countries would die from injuries, cancer-related deaths, and psychological trauma. If we update these numbers to reflect the populations as of 2018 and the urbanization of the US, the death toll would even be higher. For example, in 1979, the US had a population of about 225 million, in 2018, 327 million. Much of the growth occurred in urban areas. Today, approximately 80 percent of the US population lives in urban areas. By contrast, Russia’s population has only grown modestly. For example, in 1979, Russia had a population of about 137 million, in 2018, 144 million.

On the surface, even with the increased urbanization of the US, it would appear to suggest that the world and even the combatant nations could survive a full-scale nuclear exchange. However, that is not the case. In addition to the immediate deaths and destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve firestorms, widespread radiation sickness from the bombs and radioactive fallout, the loss of modern technology due to electromagnetic pulses (EMPs), and a nuclear winter resulting in worldwide famine.

Deaths from the nuclear blast, firestorms, and radiation are relatively easy to grasp. Deaths from the effects of an EMP blackout and a nuclear winter are more challenging to understand. Therefore, let us discuss each.

We will start by understanding the deaths associated with an EMP blackout. A nuclear detonation causes an electromagnetic pulse, which produces rapidly varying electric and magnetic fields. Those fields cause electrical and electronic systems to experience damaging current and voltage surges resulting in a blackout. [Note: In physics, a current generates a magnetic field, and a magnetic field generates a current.] How severe would an EMP blackout be? A 2017 report, written by EMP expert Peter Vincent Pry, concludes in a widespread EMP attack, “Nine of 10 Americans are dead from starvation, disease, and societal collapse.”

Reading the last line is chilling. Even if portions of the US are not affected by the blast, radiation, and firestorms, “The United States of America ceases to exist” due to the effects of EMPs causing the death of ninety percent of the US residents. According to Pry, Russia calls EMP a “revolution in military affairs.”

Let us discuss nuclear winter and its effects. If you are fortunate enough to survive the nuclear blast, radiation, fallout, and EMP blackout, you are still likely to perish in the coming years. Alan Robock and Owen Brian Toon, in their paper, “Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war,” hypothesized that a thermonuclear war could result in a nuclear winter that would be the end of modern civilization on Earth. The nuclear winter would result from the smoke and soot arising from burning wood, plastics, and petroleum fuels in nuclear-devastated cities. A recent study reported this would result in cooling by about 54–68 degrees Fahrenheit in the core farming regions of the US, Europe, Russia, and China. The cooling would reduce crop yields and lead to a “nuclear famine,” characterized by mass starvation due to disrupted agricultural production and distribution. The simple takeaway message is that modern civilization on Earth would cease to exist, and the remnants of humanity would find themselves struggling to survive.

Conclusion: There would be no winners in a full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia.

A woman with a futuristic look and a mechanical face.

Do Supercomputers Feel Emotions?

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This is an excerpt from my book, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution. Enjoy!

Affective computing is a relatively new science. It is the science of programming computers to recognize, interpret, process, and simulate human affects. The word “affects” refers to the experience or display of feelings or emotions.

While AI has achieved superhuman status in playing chess and quiz-show games, it does not have the emotional equivalence of a four-year-old child. For example, a four-year-old may love to play with toys. The child laughs with delight as the toy performs some function, such as a toy cat meowing when it is squeezed. If you take the toy away from the child, the child may become sad and cry. Computers are unable to achieve an emotional response similar to that of a four-year-old child. Computers do not exhibit joy or sadness. Some researchers believe this is actually a good thing. The intelligent machine processes and acts on information without coloring it with emotions. When you go to an ATM, you will not have to argue with the ATM regarding whether you can afford to make a withdrawal, and a robotic assistant will not lose its temper if you do not thank it after it performs a service. Significant human interactions with intelligent machines, however, will require that machines simulate human affects, such as empathy. In fact, some researchers argue that machines should be able to interpret the emotional state of humans and adapt their behavior accordingly, giving appropriate responses to those emotions. For example, if you are in a state of panic because your spouse is apparently having a heart attack, when you ask the machine to call for medical assistance, it should understand the urgency. In addition, it will be impossible for an intelligent machine to be truly equal to a human brain without the machine possessing human affects. For example, how could an artificial human brain write a romance novel without understanding love, hate, and jealousy?

Progress regarding the development of computers with human affects has been slow. In fact, this particular computer science originated with Rosalind Picard’s 1995 paper on affective computing (“Affective Computing,” MIT Technical Report #321, abstract, 1995). The single greatest problem involved in developing and programming computers to emulate the emotions of the human brain is that we do not fully understand how emotions are processed in the human brain. We cannot pinpoint a specific area of the brain and scientifically argue that it is responsible for specific human emotions, which has raised questions. Are human emotions byproducts of human intelligence? Are they the result of distributed functions within the human brain? Are they learned, or are we born with them? There is no universal agreement regarding the answers to these questions. Nonetheless, work on studying human affects and developing affective computing is continuing.

There are two major focuses in affective computing.

  1. Detecting and recognizing emotional information: How do intelligent machines detect and recognize emotional information? It starts with sensors, which capture data regarding a subject’s physical state or behavior. The information gathered is processed using several affective computing technologies, including speech recognition, natural-language processing, and facial-expression detection. Using sophisticated algorithms, the intelligent machine predicts the subject’s affective state. For example, the subject may be predicted to be angry or sad.
  2. Developing or simulating emotion in machines: While researchers continue to develop intelligent machines with innate emotional capability, the technology is not to the level where this goal is realizable. Current technology, however, is capable of simulating emotions. For example, when you provide information to a computer that is routing your telephone call, it may simulate gratitude and say, “Thank you.” This has proved useful in facilitating satisfying interactivity between humans and machines. The simulation of human emotions, especially in computer-synthesized speech, is improving continually. For example, you may have noticed when ordering a prescription by phone that the synthesized computer voice sounds more human as each year passes.

It is natural to ask which technologies are employed to get intelligent machines to detect, recognize, and simulate human emotions. I will discuss them shortly, but let me alert you to one salient feature. All current technologies are based on human behavior and not on how the human mind works. The main reason for this approach is that we do not completely understand how the human mind works regarding human emotions. This carries an important implication. Current technology can detect, recognize, simulate, and act accordingly based on human behavior, but the machine does not feel any emotion. No matter how convincing the conversation or interaction, it is an act. The machine feels nothing.

A cell phone and computer are connected to each other.

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution – Introduction

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This excerpt is the introduction from my book, The Artificial Intelligence Revolution. Enjoy!

This book is a warning. Through this medium, I am shouting, “The singularity is coming.” The singularity (as first described by John von Neumann in 1955) represents a point in time when intelligent machines will greatly exceed human intelligence. It is, in the way of analogy, the start of World War III. The singularity has the potential to set off an intelligence explosion that can wield devastation far greater than nuclear weapons. The message of this book is simple but critically important. If we do not control the singularity, it is likely to control us. Our best artificial intelligence (AI) researchers and futurists cannot accurately predict what a post-singularity world may look like. However, almost all AI researchers and futurists agree it will represent a unique point in human evolution. It may be the best step in the evolution of humankind or the last step. As a physicist and futurist, I believe humankind will be better served if we control the singularity, which is why I wrote this book.

Unfortunately, the rise of artificial intelligence has been almost imperceptible. Have you noticed the word “smart” being used to describe machines? Often “smart” means “artificial intelligence.” However, few products are being marketed with the phrase “artificial intelligence.” Instead, they are called “smart.” For example, you may have a “smart” phone. It does not just make and answer phone calls. It will keep a calendar of your scheduled appointments, remind you to go to them, and give you turn-by-turn driving directions to get there. If you arrive early, the phone will help you pass the time while you wait. It will play games with you, such as chess, and depending on the level of difficulty you choose, you may win or lose the game. In 2011 Apple introduced a voice-activated personal assistant, Siri, on its latest iPhone and iPad products. You can ask Siri questions, give it commands, and even receive responses. Smartphones appear to increase our productivity as well as enhance our leisure. Right now, they are serving us, but all that may change.

A smartphone is an intelligent machine, and AI is at its core. AI is the new scientific frontier, and it is slowly creeping into our lives. We are surrounded by machines with varying degrees of AI, including toasters, coffeemakers, microwave ovens, and late-model automobiles. If you call a major pharmacy to renew a prescription, you likely will never talk with a person. The entire process will occur with the aid of a computer with AI and voice synthesis.

The word “smart” also has found its way into military phrases, such as “smart bombs,” which are satellite-guided weapons such as the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) and the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW). The US military always has had a close symbiotic relationship with computer research and its military applications. In fact, the US Air Force, starting in the 1960s, has heavily funded AI research. Today the air force is collaborating with private industry to develop AI systems to improve information management and decision making for its pilots. In late 2012 the science website www.phys.org reported a breakthrough by AI researchers at Carnegie Mellon University. Carnegie Mellon researchers, funded by the US Army Research Laboratory, developed an AI surveillance program that can predict what a person “likely” will do in the future by using real-time video surveillance feeds. This is the premise behind the CBS television program Person of Interest.

AI has changed the cultural landscape. Yet, the change has been so gradual that we hardly have noticed the major impact it has. Some experts, such as Ray Kurzweil, an American author, inventor, futurist, and the director of engineering at Google, predicted that in about fifteen years, the average desktop computer would have a mind of its own, literally. This computer will be your intellectual equal and will even have a unique personality. It will be self-aware. Instead of just asking simple questions about the weather forecast, you may be confiding your deepest concerns to your computer and asking it for advice. It will have migrated from personal assistant to personal friend. You likely will give it a name, much in the same way we name our pets. You will be able to program its personality to have interests similar to your own. It will have face-recognition software, and it will recognize you and call you by name, similar to the computer HAL 9000 in Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. The conversations between you and your “personal friend” will appear completely normal. Someone in the next room who is not familiar with your voice will not be able to tell which voice belongs to the computer and which voice belongs to you.

By approximately the mid-twenty-first century, Kurzweil predicts that computers’ intelligence will exceed that of humans, and a $1,000 computer will match the processing power of all human brains on Earth. Although historically, predictions regarding advances in AI have tended to be overly optimistic, all indications are that Kurzweil is on target.

Many philosophical and legal questions will emerge regarding computers with artificial intelligence equal to or greater than that of the human mind (i.e., strong AI). Here are just a few questions we will ask ourselves after strong AI emerges:

  • Are strong-AI machines (SAMs) a new life-form?
  • Should SAMs have rights?
  • Do SAMs pose a threat to humankind?

It is likely that during the latter half of the twenty-first century, SAMs will design new and even more powerful SAMs with AI capabilities far beyond our ability to comprehend. They will perform a wide range of tasks, which will displace many jobs at all levels in the workforce, from bank tellers to neurosurgeons. New medical devices using AI will help the blind to see and the paralyzed to walk. Amputees will have new prosthetic limbs, with AI plugged directly into their nervous systems and controlled by their minds. The new prosthetic limb not only will replicate the lost limb but also be stronger, more agile, and superior in ways we cannot yet imagine. We will implant computer devices into our brains, expanding human intelligence with AI. Humankind and intelligent machines will begin to merge into a new species: cyborgs. It will happen gradually, and humanity will believe AI is serving us.

Computers with strong AI in the late twenty-first century, however, may see things differently. We may appear to those machines much the same way bees in a beehive appear to us today. We know we need bees to pollinate crops, but we still consider bees insects. We use them in agriculture, and we gather their honey. Although bees are essential to our survival, we do not offer to share our technology with them. If wild bees form a beehive close to our home, we may become concerned and call an exterminator.

Will the SAMs in the latter part of the twenty-first century become concerned about humankind? Our history proves we have not been a peaceful species. We have weapons capable of destroying all of civilization. We squander and waste resources. We pollute the air, rivers, lakes, and oceans. We often apply technology (such as nuclear weapons and computer viruses) without fully understanding the long-term consequences. Will SAMs in the late twenty-first century determine it is time to exterminate humankind or persuade humans to become cyborgs (i.e., humans with brains enhanced by implanted artificial intelligence and potentially having organ and limb replacements from artificially intelligent machines)? Will humans embrace the prospect of becoming cyborgs? Becoming a cyborg offers the opportunity to attain superhuman intelligence and abilities. Disease and wars may be just events stored in our memory banks and no longer threaten cyborgs. As cyborgs, we may achieve immortality.

According to David Hoskins’s 2009 article, “The Impact of Technology on Health Delivery and Access” (www.workers.org/2009/us/sickness_1231):

 

An examination of Centers for Disease Control statistics reveals a steady increase in life expectancy for the U.S. population since the start of the 20th century. In 1900, the average life expectancy at birth was a mere 47 years. By 1950, this had dramatically increased to just over 68 years. As of 2005, life expectancy had increased to almost 78 years.

 

Hoskins attributes increased life expectancy to advances in medical science and technology over the last century. With the advent of strong AI, life expectancy likely will increase to the point that cyborgs approach immortality. Is this the predestined evolutionary path of humans?

This may sound like a B science-fiction movie, but it is not. The reality of AI becoming equal to that of a human mind is almost at hand. By the latter part of the twenty-first century, the intelligence of SAMs likely will exceed that of humans. The evidence that they may become malevolent exists now, which I discuss later in the book. Attempting to control a computer with strong AI that exceeds current human intelligence by many folds may be a fool’s errand.

Imagine you are a grandmaster chess player teaching a ten-year-old to play chess. What chance does the ten-year-old have to win the game? We may find ourselves in that scenario at the end of this century. A computer with strong AI will find a way to survive. Perhaps it will convince humans it is in their best interest to become cyborgs. Its logic and persuasive powers may not only compelling but also irresistible.

Artificial intelligence is an embryonic reality today, but it is improving exponentially. By the end of the twenty-first century, we will have only one question regarding artificial intelligence: Will it serve us or replace us?

A military plane is flying in the sky.

Scenario: The Beginnings Of Modern Drone Warfare

Artificial Intelligence, Categories,

This is a scenario that depicts the beginning of modern drone warfare. Please let me know if you like these fictional scenarios, which illustrate the technological elements of warfare.

I may kill someone today, thought USAF Lieutenant Andrew Martin, as he parked in his assigned space at Nellis Air Force Base, about a 15-minute drive from Las Vegas. It was 7:30 A.M., and the morning promised a bright cloudless 85-degree day, which the locals described as perfect golf weather. However, the “perfect golf weather” made little impact on his mood. He resigned himself to the twelve-hour shift ahead of him. His anxiety began to climb as soon as he turned off the car engine. Gathering the lunch his wife, Andrea, made him just before his departure for Nellis, he got out of the car. He headed toward USAF T-5, a windowless container about the size of a trailer. Inside, the air-conditioning was kept at 63 degrees for the benefit of the computers. Once he entered T-5, the door would remain shut for security reasons until he completed his shift. He knew that it would be at least twelve hours before he could head back home to have a late supper with his wife and tuck his four-year-old daughter, Megan, in bed with a kiss. Often his daughter would ask him to read her a few pages from her favorite book, A Bear Called Paddington, which he did despite the stress of war and his sleep deprivation. Twelve-hour shifts had become the norm as the number of drone missions outpaced the number of qualified drone crews.

Climbing up the steps of T-5, he entered his code on the door panel and waited for visual confirmation. The buzz released the door lock and allowed him to enter the dimly lit T-5, whose only light source was from the fourteen computer monitors within. His shift officially started at 8:00 A.M., and he robotically walked to his RPA (remotely piloted aircraft) station to relieve second Lieutenant Harrold Sevigny, or “Eyes,” a drone Sensor Operator. If your last name was difficult to pronounce, the unit always gave you a nickname. For some reason, though, Martin never got a nickname. Those that knew him called him Andy. After his briefing and reading the orders of the day, along with the chat on the monitors, he wrestled his John Wayne body into his cockpit chair, assuming the responsibilities of a Predator drone Sensor Operator. It was time to go to war.

A twelve-hour Predator mission requires a crew consisting of five members:

  1. The Mission Monitor (MM) is responsible for the entire mission.
  2. The Pilot flies the drone using a joystick and other appropriate instruments.
  3. The Sensor Operator (SO) controls the aircraft’s cameras, radar, and targeting systems.
  4. The Intelligence Operator (IO) performs a first analysis of the imagery.
  5. A Flight Engineer (FE) supervises the entire system.

To operate 24/7 required four aircraft and a team of 82 personnel, consisting of three crews, a safety officer, and in-theater maintenance techs. The popular notion held by many U.S. citizens was that one Predator drone required only one remote pilot. Nothing could be further from reality.

Martin’s orders for today’s mission were identical to his orders for the last week. Maintain surveillance of A-4. Martin had no idea of A-4’s real identity or what role he played, if any, in terrorism. Martin could only guess he was a high-value target, which they had been tracking in northern Iraq. Looking at five computer monitors twelve hours a day was nicknamed “Predator Porn.” Most of the time, it was routine, even dull, but occasionally the monitor screens were horrific, displaying the blood and guts you saw in a grade B zombie movie.

When Martin came on duty at 8:00 A.M. sharp, it was already 4:00 P.M. in Iraq. For the moment, A-4 was inside a small earth and grass hut in Tikrit, a stronghold of ISIS in northern Iraq. The distance between Nellis Air Force Base and Tikrit was over 7,000 miles, but the images on their monitors engulfed them to the point they felt they were flying in Tikrit.

Martin nodded to Lieutenant John Hales, the Predator pilot in the cockpit seat to his left. He and John had become close friends over the last two years. Martin felt that John was one of the few people he could talk to that understood the toll drone warfare took on a day-to-day basis. Like Martin, Hales was also married and had two daughters, ages four and six. Martin stopped telling his friends and family about his military assignment. Some trivialized the work, calling him an Xbox pilot. Others just politely thanked him “for his service.” Most people felt there was little to no stress in being a Sensor Operator in a drone crew. After all, the drone crew was thousands of miles from the “real” war zone.

It appeared that the Department of Defense agreed with the prevailing sentiments regarding drone crews in both the military and civilian population. In 2013, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel rescinded a decision by his predecessor, Leon Panetta, who unveiled a “Distinguished Warfare Medal” outranking the Bronze Star and the Purple Heart, awarded to wounded troops. Instead, the Pentagon decided to create a “distinguishing device” that could be affixed to existing medals. Many military personnel and civilians took substantial issue with Panetta’s decision, which he intended to be a nod to the changing nature of warfare and represented the most substantial shakeup in the hierarchy of military medals since World War II. Even the Veterans of Foreign Wars, America’s largest combat veterans’ organization, strongly objected to the medal’s ranking. Martin felt few outside the drone units understood the level of stress and the toll it took on their lives. While it was true that strictly speaking, they were not in “harm’s way,” the warfare they waged was real. They routinely killed “enemy combatants,” supported ground troops, and saved lives.

Since assuming office in 2009, President Obama’s administration escalated “targeted killings,” primarily through increased unmanned drone strikes on al-Qaeda and the Taliban. By 2015, over 2500 enemy combatants had been killed by drone attacks. The September 2011 drone strike on Anwar al-Awlaki, an American-born Yemeni cleric and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula propagandist, was just one of the more publicized examples of how effective drones could target and neutralize “high value” enemy combatants. Based on their importance and high media profile, it would be natural to believe that many would opt to become drone crewmembers. However, the six-day workweek and twelve to fourteen-hour shifts of drone crews painted a different picture. The U.S. Air Force was short on drone crews, as drone missions unexpectedly increased when the U.S. began airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in 2014.

Martin and Hales worked well together and shared respect for each other’s roles. Recently, Hales’ family celebrated Independence Day with Martin’s family at an outdoor grilling at Martin’s home. Martin knew that Hales felt the stress and had become a binge weekend drinker but never overly indulged during the workweek. Most drone crewmembers self-medicated with alcohol and cigarettes. Martin was unusual in that he did not smoke and rarely had more than one beer on occasion.

After settling in his cockpit chair, the 27-year-old 6’2” Martin felt slightly cramped. His clean-cut looks and contagious smile, though, hid any hit of discomfort. His deep-set hazel blue eyes focused on the monitors. He had learned to do what most Sensor Operators (SOs) had learned. He could watch the screens, as if on autopilot, while thinking of almost anything else. Most of the time, he thought about his family. Occasionally, he gazed at their picture, which he always clipped to the left of his front monitor at the beginning of his shift. The hours passed. It was now 10:00 P.M. in northern Iraq, and the crew had switched to infrared.

We own the night, Martin thought.

He was right. The Predator sensors could see as well at night as they could in the day. In some respects, they could see even better at night. They could see anything that generated a heat signature, even a mouse. Martin, like many of his colleague SOs, even dreamed in infrared. The drone unit considered it a normal occupational consequence. Martin’s adrenaline was still high but suddenly spiked when a truck pulled up to the hut. Three people got out of the vehicle. Each appeared to be carrying a rifle, but that was a deduction. They could have been carrying shepherd’s staffs, for all he knew. In the sharp contrast of infrared, he watched the ghostly white figures quickly disappear into the hut. Beads of sweat began to form on his upper lip, despite the 63-degree room temperature—his heart began to race.

The Intelligence Officer (IO) asked the Flight Engineer (FE) if the system was operating within specification. The FE confirmed all systems were within spec. At that point, the IO quickly began an analysis of all known ISIS operatives in the area. Time began to dilate. Each minute felt like an hour. Within ten minutes, the IO gave his analysis to the Mission Monitor (MM), who quickly made a phone call. Martin could only guess that something big was going down.

Martin turned to the Hales. “What’s your take?”

Hales shrugged his shoulders. “Above my pay grade.”

Hales’ words were on the mark. The crew’s job did not include making decisions. For the moment, they could only wait in a holding pattern. The drone’s autopilot kept it within striking distance of the hut. The chat on one of the monitors began to spike. Speculations abounded—A-4 was holding a meeting with his direct reports, planning their next strike. Martin had to look away and force his focus on the hut. He noticed his hands beginning to tremble slightly. Hales’ body language also shouted danger. Neither spoke. Both Martin and Hales stared intently into their monitors.

The IO’s analysis, along with MM’s report, was sent to Operations Command, which could have been the ranking officer on the ground in Tikrit. Unfortunately, the crew had no idea where the reports went. Then the crew headsets came to life with a voice, an unknown chain of command from cyberspace, “Weapons confirmed.” At this point, a safety observer joined the crew to make sure any “weapon release” would be by the book.

The next command the crew received came calmly through their headsets, “Neutralize A-4 and other enemy combatants.” Oddly, the order was monotone, showing the same level of emotion as giving someone directions to the restroom.

The crew understood the command immediately and began a long verbal checklist. Martin locked his laser on the hut. The checklist neared its end with a verbal countdown, “Three…two…one.”

Hales pressed a button to release a Hellfire missile. The Hellfire flared to life, detached from its mount, and reached a supersonic speed in seconds.

Hales announced, “Missile off the rail and on route to target. ETA 15 seconds.”

Martin kept the targeting laser on the hut. All eyes were on the monitors. Each second now felt like a minute. After 5 seconds, the door to the hut suddenly opened and what appeared to be a small child looked out into the night. The crew knew they could divert the missile in all but the last few seconds. No order was given to do so. In an instant, the screen lit up with white flames. After images confirmed the hut and inhabitants destroyed.

Martin turned pale. He looked at Hales. “Did we just kill a child?”

Before Hales had a chance to reply, the crew heard over their headsets, “That was a dog.”

A dog that can open a door and stand on two legs? Martin thought.

No one commented.

The faceless commander announced, “Target Neutralized. Well done.”

Both Martin and Hales looked at each other. Each knew what the other was thinking, and no words were necessary.

The remainder of the mission consisted of assessing the damage. Nothing remained of the hut. The debris field was roughly circular. Body parts, still warm, lit up the infrared as far out as 300-meters. In the jargon of drone crews, these were “bug splats.” As Martin’s shift ended, most body parts had cooled to ground temperature and no longer gave an infrared signature. All was quiet in the aftermath. Each member of the drone crew would receive a positive entry on their record for killing four enemy combatants. At 8:00 P.M., after providing the routine debriefing to his replacement SO, Martin was relieved. His shift had ended. For him, the war was over for another twelve hours.

After two years of drone warfare, Martin knew that over the next week, they would maintain surveillance and wait for family, friends, and potential enemy combatants to visit the site to claim the remains for funeral arrangements. Martin also knew that they, and other drone crews, would maintain surveillance of the funerals to identify additional high-value targets. These activities were Top Secret and received no media attention. If high-value targets were identified, the cat and mouse game began anew. However, there were even worse alternatives. Martin had heard, via the grapevine, other drone crews were ordered to fire at the funeral gathering when several high-value targets attended. He thought, I hope it never comes to that for me.

On his drive home, Martin’s mind replayed the final infrared image of an open door and child staring into the night. When he got home, his wife was waiting for him with a hot dinner on the stove.

They were married for just over five years. Andrea’s statuette figure and pleasantly soft features immediately caught Andy’s eye during a University of Texas dance. They immediately found it easy to talk to one another and quickly became sweethearts. Andrea graduated with a B.S. degree in chemistry and taught at Austin High School, while Andy finished his M.S. degree in computer science at UT. Following Andy’s graduation from UT and his commission as a USAF second Lieutenant, they married. Andrea’s parents, Mildred and Joe, immediately liked the tall, dark-haired, and ruggedly handsome Lieutenant. Although soft-spoken, Martin had a reassuringly calm command presence. They appeared to be the perfect couple.

As he walked toward her, Andrea smiled. “How did it go today?” She was attempting to make polite conversation and could sense her husband had a nightmare day.

“About normal,” he replied softly. He knew he could not talk about the events that took place in T-5, even though he and Andrea kept no other secrets from each other. So it was probably just as well that the horrors he experienced in T-5 remained locked in his mind. “Just another day at the office,” he added with a forced smile.

She looked at him with her puppy brown eyes and smiled back. “Megan wants you to tuck her in.”

“Will do.”

He quietly walked to Megan’s room. As he entered, her eyes lit up. “Daddy, daddy, guess what we did today.”

When he looked at Megan, his mind pictured Andrea at four years old. He smiled. “Was it something nice?”

“Yes, mommy taught me how to cook an egg in water.”

“That’s wonderful. Maybe you could cook one for me tomorrow.”

Megan hugged him and said, “I will.” Then she looked at her Dad with her soulful brown eyes and asked, “Read me more about Paddington?”

“Okay, honey, but just a few pages. It’s getting way past your bedtime, and tomorrow is a school day.”

With that, he reached for the book on her night table, opened to the bookmark, and began reading softly. Soon Megan drifted into sleep.

Quietly leaving Megan’s room, he joined his wife, who had set the table for a late dinner for two. She made his favorite meal, spaghetti, and meatballs. He sat down and, finally feeling at ease, asked, “How was your day?”

Her words flowed over him like a comforter on a cold winter’s eve. He slowly ate his dinner and wondered what dreams would come that night.